Indicative indecision

So, after much agitation, tomorrow will see the Commons finally arrive at the indicative vote stage, where, allegedly, our representatives will come up with a plan for Brexit that pleases everybody.

Or not; there are apparently going to be around sixteen schemes to choose from, on a spectrum between no-deal and no-exit, so it seems unlikely that any consensus will be reached. In any case, the government has made no commitment to accept the plan that emerges, which is actually understandable, since who knows what madness MPs will come up with, and the whole thing still has to be sold to the EU, who have repeatedly said that they are not interested in any more negotiations.

Theresa May did say today that she would choose a long article 50 extension over no-deal, though she has been changing her mind on this on a daily basis, so it’s difficult to take her seriously. There are some signs that sections of the ERG may cave in and finally back her deal out of fear that Brexit is slipping away, but the contingent determined to never surrender seems to be large enough to continue to frustrate any repeated vote.

There doesn’t look to be any way that the current parliament can agree on a route out of this mess; logically the solution would appear to be a general election, but logic left this process a long time ago. Even at this late stage it’s impossible to predict what is going to happen, but if I had to make a guess, I’d go for: continuing stalemate into next week; another failed attempt to get May’s deal through; the EU granting a longer delay to allow time for an election; Labour winning on a platform of soft Brexit subject to confirmation in a second referendum; the electorate deciding to stay in the EU after all; everyone wondering why we wasted years debating all this nonsense.

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