Deadlock redux

Well, it turned out that there was to be no miracle in Westminster tonight, as the government went down to a defeat which, while not as catastrophic as last month, was still emphatic enough to banish any idea that they could try to resuscitate the deal with a third vote.

What now? There is to be a vote tomorrow on a motion ruling out a no-deal exit, which seems likely to pass, especially as Tory MPs will be given a free vote on the issue, a concession Theresa May was forced to grant by the threat of half of her cabinet rebelling, and draining away what little remains of her political authority.

However this will leave parliament in the position of demanding a deal, while simultaneously refusing the only deal on offer. There will be a move to request a delay in the departure date, but it is far from clear that the EU will cooperate with this, since there is no consensus on what should be done with the extra time, and the prospect of this paralysis continuing for the next two, three, or however many months is not particularly appealing.

If there is anything that can be said with certainty about this process, it’s that no development, however outlandish, can ever be ruled out, but it does look like we’re running out of time for a happy ending. A few days ago I predicted that the UK would crash out of the EU on the 29th, and nothing tonight has made me change my mind.

Back from the edge?

So, predictably enough, Theresa May’s new and improved Brexit deal turned out to be functionally identical to her old Brexit deal, which might lead one to believe that it is destined to go down to the same ignominious defeat suffered by its predecessor, and that does look like the most likely outcome. There is a slim hope, I guess, that the window-dressing she has been able to apply might just be enough to give plausible cover to the more faint-hearted members of her party who are looking for an excuse to back down from the ridiculous position they have talked themselves into, but whether that will be enough to counterbalance the fanatical true believers on the right remains to be seen.

Remains to be seen in the next few minutes in fact; I’ll be back with an update soon.

Finally?

It’s with a decided sense of déjà vu that I report that tomorrow is absolutely the crunch day for Brexit. Reports from Strasbourg tonight are suggesting that Theresa May has managed to win some concessions on the vexed question of the Irish backstop, though it should be noted that the source of the more optimistic briefings is the UK government; the EU are rather more downbeat.

As I write the actual text of whatever has been agreed has not been released; a press conference is apparently imminent. It’s unlikely that anything short of a complete cave-in by Brussels would satisfy the more extreme Brexiteers in the Tory party though, so the chances of the vote tomorrow being the final word on the matter seem slim.

Endgame forecast

I had been planning to record some more observations on the Brexit process over the last couple of weeks, but to be honest I have almost entirely lost the will to write about it, since the stupidity of it all is just too depressing. However there is a sense that some sort of conclusion might be reached next week, so I guess I should try to think through the possible outcomes.

The first question will be settled next Tuesday, when MPs vote on Theresa May’s supposedly revised plan; unsurprisingly, the EU have not made any concessions, so the proposal will be essentially identical to the one that was roundly rejected in January. May’s only hope of success seems to rest on the hard-Leaver wing of her party losing their nerve and falling in behind her, out of fear that otherwise there might be no Brexit at all. This looks very unlikely, so firmly have the ERG and the DUP nailed their colours to the mast on the Irish backstop question, so, unless there is a major breakdown in Labour Party discipline, it seems inevitable that the deal will be blocked once again.

This will trigger another vote the following day, when Parliament will be asked if it wants to categorically rule out a no-deal exit, on the understanding that doing so will prompt the government to seek to delay the departure date. Opposition to no-deal does seem to be the one position that commands a majority, so this outcome looks rather more likely.

Of course an extension to article 50 would require the agreement of the EU, and this may not be forthcoming, unless there is some indication that the extra time will allow a compromise to emerge. There is no sign of such a consensus at the moment, and, despite the looming deadline, the opposing positions in the UK seem if anything to be hardening, so Brussels may well decide that it’s better to get the shock of Brexit over now, rather than dragging the uncertainty out any longer.

The only plausible way to break the impasse would seem to be another referendum. The Labour leadership have, belatedly, come out in support of this, though a significant section of the parliamentary party remains opposed. There is a plan that would see Labour allowing May’s deal to pass, on the condition that it is ratified by a popular vote. However this would raise the question of what should be the other option on the ballot; no-deal or no-Brexit? Perhaps both? Organising a vote would take time; a possible date for leaving would have to be put back months, which would then oblige the UK to participate in the European elections, a turn of events unlikely to calm passions. The referendum campaign itself would almost certainly be ugly, and divert political attention away from the actual running of the country. There is something to the argument that the original Brexit result has already been confirmed by the 2017 general election, and another plebiscite would only deepen popular alienation from the political process, fuelling reactionary populism. The “People’s Vote” option is far from a panacea, and the potential complications may render it unviable.

So, for the record, what do I predict is going to happen? I think that: the vote on Tuesday will go against the government by a large margin; the Commons will vote to rule out no-deal, but will be unable to agree on an alternative; Theresa May will half-heartedly ask the EU for more time; Brussels will refuse a short extension and May will decline to request a longer one; the clock will run down and the UK will crash out of the EU on the 29th of March 2019.

Where might I be wrong? If the vote on Tuesday is relatively close, May could try again the following week, and manage to cajole enough waverers to get it over the line. Alternatively, she could abandon the right of her party, and compromise with Labour on a soft-Brexit plan. There might turn out to be a majority in favour of a second referendum. The EU could to agree a short delay, and, chastened by the brush with disaster, our politicians may use the time to negotiate a sensible solution.

Or maybe I’ll wake up, and it will all turn out to have been nothing but a bad dream…