Remember the Alamo

I’m still exiled from Second Life, due to unreliable tradesmen – it would be a lot simpler if I could just point at the walls to make them change colour. Still, I’m not missing it too much, since my real life is about ten million times more interesting than SL at the moment anyway, and I don’t have hours to waste in front of the computer.

Despite my confident predictions, Obama seems to have the Big Mo, and Hillary looks in serious danger of losing. It seems like the super-delegates are going to line up behind whoever is ahead in the popular vote, even though I thought the whole point of having super-delegates was to provide a safeguard against the party getting swept away by a tide of enthusiasm for a lightweight nominee. Texas and Ohio on March 4th will be Hillary’s last chance to turn things around. I can only hope that the primary voters stop and think long enough to realise that McCain is a very electable candidate, and that it’s going to take someone with more experience than a few years in the Illinois State Senate to take him on.

Super Tuesday

So Senators Clinton and Obama are still neck and neck after Super Tuesday. I still think it’s looking good for Hillary though, for two reasons.

Firstly McCain seems to have the Republican nomination in the bag, which will concentrate Democrat minds, since of all the GOP candidates, he looks the most electable. This makes it likely that experience will be a big issue in the general election. Exit polls show that voters who felt “experience” was a key attribute in a candidate favoured Clinton over Obama, supporting her contention that she is best placed to beat McCain. Of course the voters might think that Obama’s newness will be refreshing, but inexperience is hardly a presidential quality – even JFK had 8 years in the Senate behind him – and there would be the risk that McCain would blow him away in the heat of a national election.

Secondly, the US looks as if it is about to lurch into recession, if it hasn’t already, making the economy the number one issue for voters, well ahead of the war in Iraq. Clinton significantly outscores Obama amongst those who are looking for economic competence in their President, a section of the electorate that is likely to grow considerably over the rest of the primary season.

Add in Hillary’s appeal to women voters, and her popularity among the Hispanic community and Asian-Americans, and it is hard to see how Obama can pull in enough votes to outstrip her. It will be close though.

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