February 7, 2008 1 Comment
So Senators Clinton and Obama are still neck and neck after Super Tuesday. I still think it’s looking good for Hillary though, for two reasons.
Firstly McCain seems to have the Republican nomination in the bag, which will concentrate Democrat minds, since of all the GOP candidates, he looks the most electable. This makes it likely that experience will be a big issue in the general election. Exit polls show that voters who felt “experience” was a key attribute in a candidate favoured Clinton over Obama, supporting her contention that she is best placed to beat McCain. Of course the voters might think that Obama’s newness will be refreshing, but inexperience is hardly a presidential quality – even JFK had 8 years in the Senate behind him – and there would be the risk that McCain would blow him away in the heat of a national election.
Secondly, the US looks as if it is about to lurch into recession, if it hasn’t already, making the economy the number one issue for voters, well ahead of the war in Iraq. Clinton significantly outscores Obama amongst those who are looking for economic competence in their President, a section of the electorate that is likely to grow considerably over the rest of the primary season.
Add in Hillary’s appeal to women voters, and her popularity among the Hispanic community and Asian-Americans, and it is hard to see how Obama can pull in enough votes to outstrip her. It will be close though.