Ocktoberangst

This blog has been running for nearly twenty years now, and, while we don’t get anything like the traffic we had around our peak of popularity in 2010, we do have a steady stream of hits, and I like to imagine that these are from a loyal band of readers who have been with us since the late naughties, though of course the more rational part of my brain knows that the bulk of our audience is probably made up of random bots scraping our content for some unfathomable purpose.

Anyway, regular readers, if they do exist, will recall our annual tradition of depressing autumnal posts, in which we lament the passing of summer and the prospect of another harsh winter, and muse gloomily on the short and bitter experience that is the human condition.

Reflecting on my personal anomie seems even more self-indulgent than usual this year though, what with the state of the world; political instability, economic uncertainty, endless wars, all set against the backdrop of ecological meltdown. It’s hard to know which worries to prioritise. So here’s the SLS guide to what should be causing you sleepless nights, ranked from least to most alarming:

  • AI apocalypse – I’m not saying that AI is harmless – it’s clearly a powerful tool that allows bad people to do bad things more efficiently, and stupid people to fuck up more catastrophically – but I’m finding it hard to get too concerned at the prospect of a silicon consciousness deciding to off humanity. For one thing AI isn’t actually conscious, and for another it’s a highly complex technological artefact which sits on top of a fragile supply chain that would collapse long before the totality of human civilisation did. I’m much more worried that the inevitable bursting of the AI bubble will crash the stock market and precipitate a recession. Which brings us to:
  • The economy – Any hope that Andy Burnham might be serious about shifting the balance of economic power in the UK back towards the working classes seems likely to be dashed tomorrow with the publication of his first budget; some tinkering around the edges will do little to slow the gradual impoverishment of the mass of the population, and the accompanying social dislocation. Any spare money seems set to be invested in defence, as the nation gears up for the next:
  • War – The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a seismic shock; the European conflict we thought we’d avoided at the end of the Cold War suddenly on our doorstep. Four years on and the threat has grown, not helped by the increasing unreliability of our American allies. Which makes me very nervous about:
  • The US midterm elections – This should be a good news story; Democrats odds-on to take the House and possibly the Senate, allowing them to put a brake on the reign of Mad King Donald. The inevitability of their victory is what has me worried though; I can’t believe that Trump doesn’t have some crazy scheme lined up to annul the result, which will surely play out very poorly. All we can hope for is an outbreak of sanity in the Republican Party, which seems like a long shot.

So that’s what I’m fretting about, for this week at least. I should probably just chill out, since all of these problems are going to seem inconsequential once El Niño really kicks in…

World Series 2026 prediction

Having started out by being swept at home by the Yankees, my San Francisco Giants wrapped up a thoroughly underwhelming season by being swept at home by the Dodgers, so I’m more than ready to forget all about baseball until next year, but I still feel obligated to offer some sort of forecast for the postseason; in fact I’ll throw caution to the wind and try to pick the whole bracket.

For the National League wildcard round I’ll take the Braves over the Phillies and the Cubs over the Padres; for the division the Dodgers over the Braves and the Cubs over the Brewers; for the championship the Dodgers.

In the American League I’ll go Astros over White Sox and Red Sox over Yankees in the wildcard; Guardians over Astros and Red Sox over Rays for the division; Red Sox for the championship.

And for the World Series? The LA Dodgers.

My bookie is offering generous, though not quite astronomical, odds on this outcome, and I’ve wagered a modest sum, so I may yet have some reason for autumnal celebration…

September 11th 2026

We marked this date back in 2021 with a post musing on the interrelation of personal experience and history, and how one’s perspective on that changes as one grows older, while lamenting the modern-day tendency to view historical events through a contemporary lens, without a long-term perspective.

I still mostly hold the opinion that ahistorical analysis is problematic, but, remembering the tragedy of September 11th 2001, and reflecting on what I recall of the emotion of the time, and how that resonates to this day, it is clear that there are some things that touch upon our common humanity in a way that transcends temporal boundaries. One might think that such a bond would prevent us reenacting the disasters of the past, and while the last quarter-century would seem to belie this notion, it does give me some hope for the future.

Super Bowl LXI prediction

It’s been evident for a few months that the Giants were not going to win the World Series, but now that they have been definitively eliminated I guess it’s time to turn my attention to the NFL, and put my reputation on the line with a forecast of who will come out on top when the football season concludes in Inglewood next February.

I’m going to stick with the team from San Francisco, despite their less-than-ideal preseason, featuring catastrophic injuries, a literal car wreck, and that tawdry incident in Ohio, and notwithstanding the fact that actual professional sports writers have more or less dismissed their chances of even reaching the playoffs.

They’ve had to travel 12,000 kilometres to Melbourne for their opening fixture tonight, so I’m not sure how much we’ll be able to read into the result, but a victory might go some way towards restoring my confidence in my powers of sporting prognostication…

Gloria Steinem RIP

Looking back at the numerous obituary-themed posts we have featured over the years, I see that only three have had a female subject – Elizabeth Windsor, Margaret Thatcher, and Ruth Ginsburg – and none of them were even really about the woman herself, but rather used her demise as a jumping-off point for some other observations.

This is of course shameful, for a blog that links to think of itself as progressive, especially at a time when the struggles championed by Gloria Steinem are more relevant than they have been for years, as reactionary forces seek to roll back the gains won by the women’s movement in the last half-century.

Perhaps a relevant observation on Steinem’s life and work is to note that she was always aware of her own relative privilege, and leveraged that in support of those more marginalised. Certainly an example we could benefit from following…

Final eclipse

We’ve enjoyed clear skies for most of this month, so I had hoped to have a good view of yesterday’s solar eclipse, but as the day went on the clouds rolled in, and by the evening the horizon was entirely obscured.

I can’t say that I was terribly disappointed, but I did experience some sadness as I contemplated the fact that I’m not likely to be around to witness the next performance of this cosmic dance, due in 2081.

Of course I could just get off my ass and travel the non-cosmic distance to Spain, where I’d be able to catch a total eclipse as soon as next year. Iberia has been getting uncomfortably hot of late though, so I’ll probably stick to watching it on the TV…

Change at the top

So, Spain emerged triumphant at the World Cup, as we predicted (more or less), though their victory over reigning champions Argentina was one of the less thrilling games of the tournament. The winning goal was pretty impressive though.

There’s a new top dog here in the UK too. It’s still not entirely clear how Andy Burnham plans to steer the nation back towards the sunlit uplands, but he is making some vaguely promising noises, so I guess we should give him the benefit of the doubt, for a while at least…

Only halfway through the summer

Having patted myself on the back for the success of my bold prediction that three of the best teams on the planet would do quite well in the World Cup, I guess I should acknowledge that another of my sporting forecasts – that San Francisco would win the World Series – is looking rather less accurate.

I’ll admit that my confidence in the Giants’ shot at glory was based more on sentiment than cold calculation, but I was expecting that the All-Star break would see them still in contention for the playoffs, rather than sitting with the fifth-worst record in the big leagues.

Fortunately, baseball has the attractive feature of lots of games in a season, so even a terrible team will win once or twice most weeks, and there are certain to be some highlights for fans to cheer, like rounding off an unlikely late-inning comeback with a walk-off grand slam.

So I’ll keep on tuning in late at night, in the hope that the Giants will rally for a thrilling run to the postseason, or, failing that, at least beat the Dodgers a few more times…

World Cup 2026 prediction update

So we’re at the semifinal stage, and 3 out of my 4 picks are still standing, which is actually the best possible outcome for my forecast, since I had misread the bracket and missed that France and Germany couldn’t both make it this far.

The surprise package are England, but I can’t see them getting past Argentina. France versus Spain looks likely to be close, but I’ll stick with my prediction that the French will make the final, and lift the trophy.

800

I may have missed the opportunity to mark our 19th birthday back in May with a special post, but I have been paying enough attention to notice that this is the 800th piece we have produced since our debut in 2007.

When we reached the 700 tally towards the end of 2022 I estimated that it would take us around three years to knock off the next century, but we proved incapable of keeping up even that modest pace. We are going marginally faster than we did between 400 and 500 though, and the milestone of 1000 posts, while still distant, is tantalisingly imaginable, which is just about enough motivation to keep me going.

I also quite enjoy looking back through our old content; much of it is nonsense of course, and of limited interest unless you happen to be me, but there is some good writing to be found, and I like the thought of my future self fondly perusing our current pieces in years to come.

I guess, with our twentieth anniversary looming, I should start working on some sort of grand retrospective, but if my blogging experience has taught me anything, it is that such ambitious projects usually come to nothing, and it’s the smaller, spontaneous posts that work out best, so I think I’ll aim for the more achievable goal of just sticking around.