War in Palestine

I guess it’s a sign of how long I’ve been following world affairs that the current conflict in Palestine seems to me like a repeat of a horribly familiar story. There is no reason to believe that this round of bloodletting will end any differently from previous chapters; when the smoke clears and the bodies are buried there will be no resolution of the injustice suffered by Palestinians displaced in 1948, and consequently no hope of a lasting peace in the region.

One might think that, even if humanitarian concerns carried no weight, simple realpolitik would dictate that a ceasefire was in the interests of all parties. It is difficult to see what Israel has to gain from committing troops to a prolonged ground war without an obvious exit strategy, though perhaps easier to perceive how Benjamin Netanyahu might see an advantage to such a course of action as he tries to evade responsibility for the disastrous failure of his security policy.

When one does take the humanitarian situation into account, then the case for a ceasefire is unanswerable. It cannot be denied that those responsible for the atrocities committed during the Hamas incursion into southern Israel should be brought to account, but inflicting further suffering upon a trapped civilian population, in clear violation of international law, does not bring that goal any closer.

Is there any cause for optimism? There are some indications that Israel, perhaps under pressure from the US, is limiting the scale of its operation in Gaza to something less than a full occupation, which may not immediately make the situation better, but might avoid making it much worse. Qatar is reportedly negotiating a release of hostages, aid is trickling over the Egyptian border, and the UN Security Council is working on a resolution calling for a ceasefire. This may be just enough to steer the region away from catastrophe in the short term, but a durable solution will require a resumption of serious negotiation, and there is little sign that either side is willing or able to countenance the necessary compromises in the foreseeable future. When the guns do fall silent this time around it may not be for long.