New Hampshire 2024

This time four years ago we were surveying the field of Democrats vying to challenge President Trump in the fall; our pick was Bernie Sanders, so at least we spotted it would be an old white guy.

No such excitement in this cycle; any hope that the GOP contest might spark into life after the procession in Iowa was extinguished by Nikki Haley’s failure to enthuse a sufficient number of moderate Republicans to stall Trump’s progress, more or less guaranteeing a Biden-Trump rematch in November.

I’m not enough of a student of US politics to know the last time that both parties had their presidential candidates in place this early in an election year; probably something like the Polk-Clay showdown of 1844. I have mixed feelings about the prospect of a ten-month campaign; there are sure to be some entertaining moments, but it seems likely to get even uglier than the 2020 race, and a happy ending is far from assured. Still, I’ll try to follow it assiduously, and keep up a steady commentary; I’ll let you know if I start to doubt my forecast of a Biden victory…