Oscar predictions 2025 revisited

Three out of seven for my predictions this year, a slightly better score than last time around. I’m a bit surprised that Anora did so well; I enjoyed it, but The Brutalist did seem more like the kind of movie that the members of the Academy would deem worthy of honour. None of the other awards were too outrageous I guess, apart perhaps from Zoe Saldaña picking up Best Supporting Actress, though I suppose she did give the one of the better performances in the otherwise wildly overrated Emilia Pérez.

Oscar predictions 2025

Having managed to see around half of the movies in contention, and at least read something about most of the others, here is my semi-confident forecast of how the main awards will be distributed tomorrow evening:

  • Best Actor
    • Timothée Chalamet
  • Best Actress
    • Mikey Madison
  • Best Supporting Actor
    • Kieran Culkin
  • Best Supporting Actress
    • Felicity Jones
  • Best Director
    • Brady Corbet
  • Best International Feature
    • I’m Still Here
  • Best Picture
    • The Brutalist

That’s what I think will happen, and pretty much what I think should happen too; the main exception being that I would pick Nickel Boys over The Brutalist for Best Picture (and Hundreds of Beavers over both of them had it not, inexplicably, failed to gain a nomination).

Manchurian Trump

I wrote in a post last month that it would probably be some time before we could really make sense of the actions of the new US administration, but it turns out that I was wrong. It wasn’t hard to read the meaning of the Trump/Vance beatdown of Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, televised live from the Oval Office to a shocked world; we are now back in an era of Great Power politics, where nations have no permanent alliances, only permanent interests, and Emperor Trump will grant no favours to those who do not cower before him.

In such circumstances even a peacenik like me doesn’t need much convincing that rearmament is a sensible policy, though obviously I’d be in favour of paying for it by taxing the rich rather than cutting aid to the poor. Strengthening ties with more reliable allies like France and Germany seems like a no-brainer too.

One question that might have to wait for history to answer is whether Trump is an active agent of Vladimir Putin, or merely a useful idiot. Perhaps he was brainwashed during his infamous Moscow trip, then sent back to infiltrate the White House and do the Kremlin’s bidding, though it does seem more likely that Putin, like the rest of us, can scarcely believe that Trump has managed to con his way into power, but isn’t going to let a lucky break like that pass him by.