Thoughts on the Gaza ceasefire

Such is the state of the world at the moment it’s hardly surprising there is a general feeling of relief at the cessation of hostilities in Gaza, and an equally general reluctance to think too deeply about the details. I am certainly in the camp of those who are willing to let hope triumph over experience, even if it means ignoring the evidence that the Israeli government is already looking for a pretext to resume its murderous offensive.

That said, the idea that this pause in the violence may persist is not entirely irrational; Donald Trump has staked enough of his personal prestige on the success of the deal to ensure that he will lean on Benjamin Netanyahu to make it work, and Netanyahu himself may calculate that delivering even temporary peace will win enough public support to allow him to ditch the more belligerent members of his current coalition.

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic too though; this deal does nothing to address the underlying issue of the occupation, and the denial of Palestinian national rights, nor does it suggest that anyone will be held to account for the campaign of genocide endured by the civilian population of Gaza over the last two years. These are not minor details, and leaving them unresolved is yet another example of the catastrophic failure of diplomacy that has plagued the region over too many years.

Is there a solution to this seemingly intractable problem? Some sort of UN authority to enforce the ceasefire and set out a roadmap to Palestinian statehood would seem to be required, but agreement to such a body is unlikely in the current context of fractured international relations. The EU may step up to give a diplomatic lead, or perhaps the promise of a Nobel prize will persuade Trump to throw US weight behind the plan; failing such unlikely developments we may see a resumption of conflict even sooner than we fear.