Gorton and Denton prediction

I’d taken a break from thinking too much about politics over the last month or so, mainly because I had been finding developments on both sides of the Atlantic a bit of a downer. The rest seems to have done me some good, and I’m beginning to feel more optimistic again, to the extent that I’m willing to risk forecasting the result of tomorrow’s by-election in the hitherto safe Labour seat on the edge of Manchester.

I think it will be… Green, Labour, Reform.

What that will mean for wider British politics is a much bigger question of course. Will Labour jettison Keir Starmer in the hope of avoiding a complete rout in the regional elections in May? Will the Greens be able to translate a local triumph into national momentum? Will the wheels start to come off for Reform?

My short answers are No, Maybe, Yes, but I guess we should wait to see the actual result before we get too deep into the post-mortem…