No crypto

November 5, 2023 Leave a comment

In a development which won’t have surprised anyone who had paid even passing attention to the case laid out by the prosecution, a jury in Manhattan took only four hours to convict Sam Bankman-Fried, erstwhile CEO of collapsed crypto exchange FTX, on all seven charges he faced in connection with the scandal, encompassing wire fraud, money laundering, and, for good measure, securities and commodities fraud. Bankman-Fried reportedly faces more than 100 years in federal prison, and still has another trial on related charges to look forward to next year.

What’s interesting is that, despite his reputation as a DeFi genius, SBF’s crimes were spectacularly low-tech; he took the money entrusted to him by credulous depositors, and spent it on stuff. The crypto veneer added nothing, other than some distracting stardust, and a rationale for registering his company in the Bahamas, thus avoiding US regulatory purview. Even without such oversight it’s hard to see how SBF thought he could get away with it, unless he had become so intoxicated by his own publicity that he believed he really could spin gold out of digital straw.

The FTX debacle, along with various other blockchain-related fiascos, seems to have dealt a fatal blow to the NFT market, a development so predictable that even we managed to see it coming at the peak of the frenzy in 2021.

Despite all this Bitcoin is still doing relatively well, presumably because, unlike pictures of jaded simians, it actually has a use value, albeit one that appeals mainly to criminals looking to transfer funds clandestinely, though even that is not foolproof.

None of this is new of course, as we wrote way back in 2010, apropos of the blog-related scams prevalent in those days:

Persuading people to suspend their disbelief by invoking some magical new paradigm must go back to the days when enterprising cavemen extracted shiny pebbles from their gullible fellows by promising to share the secrets of how to generate revenue using that new “fire” thing that everyone was talking about.

So I think I’ll continue to pass on crypto, or whatever incomprehensible tech-based get-rich-quick scheme comes along next, and stick to old-school working for a living.

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War in Palestine

October 30, 2023 Leave a comment

I guess it’s a sign of how long I’ve been following world affairs that the current conflict in Palestine seems to me like a repeat of a horribly familiar story. There is no reason to believe that this round of bloodletting will end any differently from previous chapters; when the smoke clears and the bodies are buried there will be no resolution of the injustice suffered by Palestinians displaced in 1948, and consequently no hope of a lasting peace in the region.

One might think that, even if humanitarian concerns carried no weight, simple realpolitik would dictate that a ceasefire was in the interests of all parties. It is difficult to see what Israel has to gain from committing troops to a prolonged ground war without an obvious exit strategy, though perhaps easier to perceive how Benjamin Netanyahu might see an advantage to such a course of action as he tries to evade responsibility for the disastrous failure of his security policy.

When one does take the humanitarian situation into account, then the case for a ceasefire is unanswerable. It cannot be denied that those responsible for the atrocities committed during the Hamas incursion into southern Israel should be brought to account, but inflicting further suffering upon a trapped civilian population, in clear violation of international law, does not bring that goal any closer.

Is there any cause for optimism? There are some indications that Israel, perhaps under pressure from the US, is limiting the scale of its operation in Gaza to something less than a full occupation, which may not immediately make the situation better, but might avoid making it much worse. Qatar is reportedly negotiating a release of hostages, aid is trickling over the Egyptian border, and the UN Security Council is working on a resolution calling for a ceasefire. This may be just enough to steer the region away from catastrophe in the short term, but a durable solution will require a resumption of serious negotiation, and there is little sign that either side is willing or able to countenance the necessary compromises in the foreseeable future. When the guns do fall silent this time around it may not be for long.

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Burning dilemma

September 4, 2023 Leave a comment

There was a period back in the mid-00s when I harboured a desire to attend the Burning Man Festival, but the logistics always defeated me, and in the end I sadly accepted it was never going to happen, consoling myself by taking in the Second Life version instead.

More recently, as my life has progressed and I have become somewhat less encumbered by responsibility, the thought of going has entered my mind again, and when I read last month that tickets were more available than usual this year I wondered if I should drop everything for a quick transatlantic trip.

Predictably enough I didn’t get my act together, and just as well, as it’s turned out fairly grim. (Though not by all accounts; some people seem to be having a fine time). In any case I would probably have felt a bit conflicted by the inflation of my carbon footprint consequent on such a frivolous excursion, as well as the environmental cost of the festival itself, not to mention the morality of lavish expenditure in the midst of a cost of living crisis. Perhaps I can recreate the vibe on a more sustainable scale by getting stoned and lighting some garbage on fire in my own backyard this weekend…

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Retrumped

August 31, 2023 Leave a comment

Looking through our extensive archive, I see that our first mention of Donald Trump came back in 2007, in a post about the Second Life real estate market, where he is referenced in his capacity as an archetypal successful tycoon, though even at that time there was a cartoonish element to his public persona.

Trump next turns up in late summer 2015, when we note in passing that his popularity is rising. Into 2016, and his name features more frequently, as we first dismiss the possibility that he will be the Republican nominee, then assure readers that he has no chance of capturing the Presidency.

(In defence of that latter prediction I would point out that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, which in any normal country would have given her the job, but we reckoned without the vagaries of the Electoral College).

Unsurprisingly, the antics of the Executive Branch provided material for plenty of posts over the next four years, culminating in the tragicomedy of the Capitol riot.

I’ll admit that at that point I thought Trump would cut his losses and retire to the lucrative lecture circuit, a career move which would probably have kept him out of jail, since, notwithstanding high-minded rhetoric about nobody being above the law, the US doesn’t really see itself as the sort of country where you can be locked up for losing an election. However, for whatever reason, he’s decided to run again, exposing himself to legal peril, and pitching us into a rerun of the GOP primary of eight years ago, but this time without the laughs.

Where will it all end? My track record of forecasts on this topic is obviously abysmal, but I’ll hazard a guess that Trump will be the Republican candidate in 2024, and that Joe Biden will beat him again. His various trials will be postponed until after polling day, but his misdeeds will eventually catch up with him.

Will Trump attempt another coup when it becomes obvious he has no chance of a legitimate win? He may, but if it’s anything like the laughably amateur affair detailed in the Georgia indictment, then it seems very unlikely he will succeed, and the heavy sentences being handed down to the would-be insurrectionists of January ‘21 will deter all but the most deluded of his followers from joining in.

That’s how I see things today anyhow; my opinion is subject to change as events unfold. If nothing else, the renewed Trump Show should inspire me to post a little more frequently over the next few months, which may not entirely make up for the chaos he could unleash, but will at least keep me amused.

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July daze redux

July 30, 2023 Leave a comment

If I wanted to excuse the infrequent nature of my posts since the start of the year by claiming that I’ve been paralysed by existential anxiety, I wouldn’t have to look too hard to find plausible reasons for despair; take your pick from accelerating climate breakdown, attritional wars on multiple continents, the predicted rise of killer AI, unaccountable oligarchs hoarding wealth while the young slide into financial precarity, the resurgence of Donald Trump, rumoured extraterrestrial incursions, general government mendacity and incompetence… and that’s just this week’s news.

In truth though, I’ve been largely silent for almost exactly the opposite reason; the last few months have found me in a state of unfocused contentment, which hasn’t exactly been unpleasant, but has left me with a nagging feeling that I should have some stronger opinions about what’s going on, and should be taking every opportunity to share them.

There’s only so much angst anyone can take though, and I reckon I’ve done my share of agitation over the years, so I’m going to forgive myself for lapsing into a period of blissful denial, until the end of the summer at least. Assuming that ever comes…

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Midsummer musing

June 22, 2023 Leave a comment

So here we are at the longest day, which seems like a good point to take stock of the year so far, and anticipate developments in the months ahead.

Or it would be, if this blog was anything other than moribund. Since the start of the year I’ve mentally composed multiple posts, but the few I’ve gotten around to actually writing have been somewhat underwhelming.

I had a vague idea about shaming myself into productive activity by listing a few of the sort of topics that anyone claiming to be an engaged member of society should really be able to formulate an opinion on, with the expectation that I would compose something about them in the not too distant future, but when I actually wrote them down – artificial intelligence, the war in Ukraine, UFOs, UK politics, US politics – it looked rather obvious and dull. An alternative strategy – spontaneously reacting to whatever is in the news – has led to some of our best pieces in the past, but feels like it would require more energy and enthusiasm than I can muster at the moment.

So I don’t know. I guess these things go in cycles, though of late the intensely creative periods seem to have been getting rarer, if indeed they ever existed at all. Still, life is always a matter of hope triumphing over experience, so I’ll press on…

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Coronation musings

May 6, 2023 Leave a comment

One day when I was in primary school, back in the mid-1970s, we were all loaded on to buses and taken to the cinema, which was a pretty big deal, since such extracurricular excitement was a rare event in those days. The film we saw was A Queen Is Crowned, the 1953 documentary of the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II. Presented in glorious Technicolor, and narrated by Laurence Olivier no less, it was quite a spectacle, and must have been even more impressive when it was first released to a nation only just emerging from postwar austerity. I’m not sure why we were taken to see it; the obvious reason would be the Silver Jubilee of 1977, but I’m fairly sure this trip was a couple of years before that. Anyway, whatever the occasion, Liz’s big day was clearly grand enough, even at second hand, that I can recall it nearly half a century later.

There has been plenty of comment over the last few weeks noting the contrast between the forward-looking, vibrant country which welcomed a modern young Queen, and the insular, sclerotic nation, obsessed with past glories, that her elderly son has inherited. There’s no doubt that the excitement that greeted Elizabeth’s ascension has not been replicated; popular reaction to today’s events has predominantly been one of indifference. Even staunch republicans like myself are mostly irritated rather than outraged, and we’re not complaining about the extra holiday on Monday.

The gloominess may be overstated though, and it is probably confined to observers of my generation, who are looking back on their lives with vague regret. Younger citizens, who still have a future ahead of them, see a Britain that, for all its troubles, is infinitely more diverse and socially progressive than it was in the 1950s. The fact that we are no longer psychologically in thrall to the monarchy is sign of how far the nation has come. We probably won’t have to wait 70 years for another coronation, but I’m sure that next time around it will be even more of a minority interest.

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Fore too owe

April 20, 2023 Leave a comment

Despite good intentions, my posting frequency has fallen off a cliff since the start of the year. There are multiple reasons for this, not least of which is a renewed appreciation of el primo cheeba cheeba, a legacy of my trip to California last summer.

There was a time when getting baked inspired my creativity; now I’m older it just sends me into a groove of contented passivity. Which isn’t unpleasant, but it does leave me with a feeling that I could be spending my remaining days a little more productively. Perhaps I should resolve to have a straight-edge summer this year. Starting tomorrow…

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Arresting developments

April 2, 2023 Leave a comment

If I had been together enough back in January to come up with a list of predictions for the year ahead, I’m pretty sure that “Donald Trump gets arrested” would have been on it somewhere, but I have to admit that I wouldn’t have guessed that the first charges he’d be facing would be in connection with the Stormy Daniels affair.

Conspiracy theories alleging that the case is some sort of political witch-hunt are rather undermined by the fact that, of the various legal perils facing Trump, this is by far the least likely to damage his standing amongst his hardcore support; clandestinely paying off an adult film star to cover up an alleged liaison is so on-brand that it will probably enhance his appeal to the MAGA faithful.

If anything, the indictment is a gift to Trump; it forces his potential rivals within the GOP to spring to his defence, and more or less nails him on as the candidate for 2024, while not really affecting his appeal to the general electorate, since the facts of the case are already widely known, and priced in to public opinion.

So if the shadowy deep-state conspirators really want to prevent Trump returning to the White House, they’re going to have to up their game a bit. Unless their plan is to make sure that he cruises through the Republican primaries, on the assumption that he will crash and burn in the general election. Because that strategy worked so well in 2016…

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Oscar predictions 2023 revisited

March 13, 2023 Leave a comment

So, confidence notwithstanding, my score was even worse than last year, with only my call for the Best Director Award proving correct. It seems that actually watching the nominated movies doesn’t improve my accuracy at all; perhaps next year I’ll save time by just reading the reviews.

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