Long dark night

It’s that point in the evening where the exit polls and early results are in, and the crushing wave of depression is just about being held at bay by the increasingly forlorn hope that it might not turn out as badly as it it’s looking at the moment.

In my younger days I used to stay up until the early hours on an election night, but I don’t have the stamina for that now. Of course back then I was often actually at the count, which was much more fun than sitting at home alone, following the outcome on a laptop. I’ll probably stick it out for another hour or so, but finding something to feel good about amongst the gloom will have to wait for the morning.

Nervous anticipation

I’m just back from casting my ballot, not that it’s likely to make much difference – the constituency where I live is a Labour/SNP marginal, and since the only plausible alternative to a Tory majority is some sort of coalition of the anti-Conservative forces, in practical terms it won’t make any difference which of the two comes out on top around here. For the record I voted Labour, since they do have a fairly progressive programme, by contemporary standards at least.

So now we wait; the exit polls should be out in half an hour or so, and then we’ll know our fate. All the pundits are predicting a win for Johnson, and while forecasts of a May landslide were badly wrong in 2017, I’m not at all confident that Corbyn will pull off a similar escape act this time. There are reports of a good turnout, especially among young voters, which is a source of faint hope, but at best it’s going to be a close thing. We’ll find out soon enough I guess…

To the polls

I regularly exhort the citizens of other countries to go out and vote for progressive candidates, or at least against reactionaries, so I guess I should do the same in the UK’s hour of need, however unlikely it is that the SLS-reading demographic will make the crucial difference.

I’m not usually a big advocate of tactical voting, but the present danger does seem serious enough to justify it, so, if you’re reading this, and still in any doubt about where to place your X, please support whichever of your local candidates is best placed to defeat the Tories.

Conflicting narratives

Last night saw the first set-piece event of the election campaign, as Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn squared off in the initial leaders’ debate.

Most commentators have scored the contest an uninspiring draw; certainly neither man landed a significant blow, nor made a major blunder. There was nothing to surprise potential voters who have paid even scant attention to political developments over the last few months, but the outlines of the respective campaigns were clarified; Johnson is determined to keep the focus on Brexit, while Corbyn wants to fight on the broader front of opposition to Tory austerity.

How this will all play out is still very uncertain. Johnson’s strategy hinges on winning support from Labour leavers in the north of England, while hoping that Tory remainers in the south are put off defecting to the Liberals by fear of a Corbyn administration. Labour’s hopes rest on their traditional heartlands staying loyal, while Johnson’s lurch to the right drains his support among moderate conservatives.

Add in the wildcard of the Brexit party, the national question in Scotland and Wales, and doubts about turnout in the middle of winter, and it all looks quite bewildering. The polls are suggesting that Johnson’s gamble might pay off, but the polls were badly wrong in 2017, so I’m sticking to my forecast of a minority Labour government before the end of the year.