Euro 2024 update

Well, my tip of Germany to win Euro 2024 hasn’t worked out, though in my defence I’d note that they did run Spain, the form team of the tournament so far, pretty close, and a more favourable draw might have seen them go further.

Anyway, the evidence would seem to suggest that I should switch my prediction to Spain, but that’s too simple, so I’m going to go with France, who have had the most luck so far, which is often the decisive factor in these sort of fine-margin games.

Election reaction 2024

I may be half a continent away, and somewhat irked by my disenfranchisement, but I still experienced a moment of uncomplicated joy when I awoke this morning to the news that the Tories had not just lost the election, but been thoroughly humiliated in the process, fitting reward for their years of misgovernance.

Only a moment though; some contend that the Labour victory represents the rebirth of sensible social democracy, but I’m not convinced, and even if it does it is far from certain that such a programme would be equal to the challenges facing the nation.

There will be time to worry about that in the future I guess; for now we should enjoy the discomfiture of our erstwhile rulers, and celebrate even a small step towards a better tomorrow.

Election dissatisfaction

As readers may have surmised from the paucity of posts on the topic, I have not been wildly enthused by the ongoing UK election, as the Tories shambolic campaign has underperformed already rock-bottom expectations, and Labour have remained laser-focused on one simple but uninspiring pledge; that they will be exactly like the Conservatives, but competent.

Actually, that’s probably unfair on Labour; they do have some vaguely progressive policies, and while the opinion polls suggest that Keir Starmer could propose the establishment of a workers’ republic and still win handily, such is the country’s desire for change, it’s understandable that party strategists might be fretting that wavering Tory voters may rediscover their loyalty in the privacy of the voting booth.

All that said, I had been looking forward to casting a vote, probably for the Greens, since I actually know their local candidate personally, and I’m not inclined to break the habit of a lifetime by supporting anyone who has a chance of winning, but I’m not going to have that opportunity alas, since I’m out of the country for the next 10 days. I did apply for a postal vote as soon as the election date was announced, but, with the inefficiency that seems to characterise every part of the state these days, our local election board didn’t get around to issuing the papers until after my departure.

Looking abroad doesn’t engender much more optimism in the future of democracy. France goes to the polls tomorrow with the far right tipped to do well, and Democrats in US are experiencing a collective panic attack following Joe Biden’s less-than-stellar performance in the first Presidential debate.

I guess it’s always possible that these setbacks will galvanise the left, but that’s what we’ve been telling ourselves for the best part of two decades now, so I’m finding it hard to keep the hope alive…

Euro 2024 prediction

The tournament kicks off tomorrow, so, buoyed by my near-success with the Superbowl, I’m going to stick my neck out and back Germany to win Euro 2024.

It’s true that the last time I staked my reputation as a sports guru on Teutonic triumph they let me down badly, but this year they seem to be hitting good form at just the right moment, and when you add in home advantage they look to be unstoppable. France, Portugal, and perhaps even England, might give them some problems, but all things considered I’m confident that it will be Ilkay Gundogan who’ll be lifting the cup on the 14th of July.

Echoes of war

We’ve written about Operation Overlord twice before; once on the 70th anniversary, and again five years later. In both of those pieces we noted that the events of D-Day were moving from lived history into half-remembered mythology, but now we’ve reached the 80-year mark it’s all looking frighteningly contemporary.

The immediate reason for this is of course the fact that there is an active war grumbling on in the heart of Europe, not to mention the genocide unfolding in Palestine, and bloody conflicts in Sudan and Myanmar, all adding up to a scale of worldwide violence not seen since the 1940s. Even without the fighting, there would still be the unsettling feeling that civilisation is unravelling, with living standards declining, infrastructure crumbling, and fascism on the rise, much like the years leading up to WW2.

I’m comforting myself with the possibly delusional hope that the forthcoming election will also be a throwback to the middle of the twentieth century, and usher in a reforming government that will nationalise everything and rebuild the welfare state. I guess that in the darkest hours we have to stay focused on the promise of a new dawn.

Trump guilty as charged

Well, as I predicted, the jury didn’t take too long to find Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts, not a particularly surprising outcome given the weight of evidence against him.

No doubt he and his supporters will try to spin this as a Biden-inspired fit-up, but the clear fact is that he has been convicted by a jury of ordinary citizens, after a demonstrably fair trial, which, we can only hope, may finally start to turn mainstream opinion decisively against him.

Trump on trial

Prosecution and defence have wrapped up their final submissions to the jury, and the outcome of Donald Trump’s hush-money trial, and perhaps the fate of the free world, now hangs on the decision of twelve New Yorkers.

The proceedings, while not as exciting as the OJ Simpson trial back in the 90s, have been quietly gripping in their own way. The prosecution methodically laid out their case, backing it up with reams of documentation, compelling testimony from Stormy Daniels, and some rather less convincing testimony from Michael Cohen. The defence made only a token effort to refute any of the actual facts; rather their strategy was based on tacitly admitting that, sure, he may have done these things, but what of it? Is it a crime for a married man to try to bury the embarrassing story of that time he fucked a porn star? If he tasked Cohen with the job of making the actual payments, well, isn’t Cohen a lawyer, so can’t that be recorded as a legal expense?

It’s a superficially plausible argument, but the fatal flaw is the denial that the cover-up was primarily related to the election, and thus that the money spent on it didn’t need to be declared as a campaign contribution. This is obviously preposterous, and I can’t imagine that any member of the jury will believe it.

I don’t think the deliberations will take very long, so we should have a verdict soon, perhaps by the end of the week. My prediction? Trump will be convicted. What will that mean for the election in November? I don’t know. In a sane world it would sink him, but the world we find ourselves living in is some way from being sane, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see…

General Election 2024

In a somewhat unexpected development my prediction of a summer election has turned out to be spot on. The general consensus among political commentators had been that Rishi Sunak would hold off going to the country until at least November, in the hope that the economy might have picked up enough by then to underwrite some crowd-pleasing tax cuts, but he has opted to gamble on a snap poll in July instead. This rather suggests that he believes that the state of the country in two months will be bad enough to render him even less electable than he is now, if such a thing is possible, which is not a particularly reassuring message.

So we can look forward to six weeks or so of what is likely to be a deeply unpleasant campaign, as the Tories fall back on the blend of xenophobia and culture-war fear-mongering that is their only hope of distracting the electorate from their actual record in government. In theory, all Labour will have to do is stay quiet and look competent, which I’m sure they have the discipline for, so I can’t see the final outcome being anything other than a change of regime, which will be relief after all the nonsense of the last few years.

Steve Albini RIP

Sad news about alt-rock legend Steve Albini, who died suddenly today, reportedly suffering a heart attack while working at his studio.

Albini engineered two of my all-time favourite albums, Pixies’ Surfer Rosa, and Pod by The Breeders, as well as Nirvana’s In Utero, which we mentioned just recently, and plenty other stuff I listened to in the late 80s and 90s, so he was definitely a major influence on the development of my musical consciousness in that era.

I was never hugely into Albini’s own music though, in Big Black or any of his subsequent projects; I did buy a copy of Songs About Fucking, but I don’t think I put it on more than a handful of times. That was at least partly due to his well-deserved reputation as an asshole; identifying as a fan wasn’t something I was entirely comfortable with. To be fair, in later years he did express what seemed like genuine contrition for the poses he struck back then, so I expect he will be remembered in a mostly positive light. His band Shellac are due to release what is now fated to be their last album later this month; I guess I could give him another chance. If nothing else it might unearth some fond memories of what I still think of as one of the more pleasant periods of my life.

Out of juice

The passing of OJ Simpson last week prompted a flurry of media reminiscence about his 1995 murder trial. The contrast between the 1990s, when the internet had yet to become a mass phenomenon, and our current social-media-saturated time is stark; back then the wall-to-wall TV coverage, with its lurid storyline and celebrity cast, was a novel experience, able to capture the attention of a worldwide audience for months on end, whereas today it seems likely that it would be just one more piece of transient clickbait.

I do remember following the case at the time, and not being particularly surprised when OJ was acquitted; the evidence certainly suggested that he was guilty, but the shambolic performance by the prosecution, along with the defence’s exposure of the racism and incompetence of the LAPD, was more than enough to give the jury grounds for reasonable doubt. He did end up in jail eventually, in circumstances that seemed very much like a fit-up, and lost a civil case to the victims’ families, but it’s difficult to say that justice was served.

It will be interesting to see if the trial due to start in Manhattan tomorrow will seize the public imagination in quite the same way. On the face of it it should, featuring as it does an ex-President of the United States, an actress best known for appearing in pornographic movies, and various shady financial dealings, but I wonder if we are now so inured to such tawdry spectacle that it will merge into the general air of decline that besets what remains of the ideal of liberal democracy.

Perhaps the real significance of the OJ trial was that it marked the beginning of the end for the concept that society could agree on a common set of facts and values, and that guilt or innocence could be determined by impartial examination of objective evidence. Now everything is seen through a partisan lens, and anything that contradicts our preconceived narrative is dismissed as fake news.

Of course I like to think that I am above such petty prejudice, so I’ll wait to see how the case pans out before I predict the verdict. Whatever happens, I doubt it will have a significant impact on the result in November, since I’m sure that nothing will be revealed about the defendant’s character that we didn’t already know.