Unlucky Jays

Oh well, the curse of SLS strikes again, though Toronto can console themselves with the thought that they more than played their part in what was a thrilling series, in the end just succumbing to the Dodgers’ starry roster, especially Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was all but unhittable right through the postseason.

There is no doubt that, in terms of pure athletic aesthetics, a strong team like the Dodgers has a certain beauty, but the appeal of a sport goes beyond any single club; some element of genuine competition is needed too. The fact that the Blue Jays came within a couple of outs of an upset only partially obscures the reality that allowing financial disparity within a league to become too lopsided will ultimately undermine the value of the product. A salary cap is the club owners’ preferred solution, but is, unsurprisingly, unpalatable to the players, so some other collective remedy, like increased pooling of media revenue, might be necessary. Whether the teams in big markets, who are doing well under the current system, will be on board with this is another question of course, but it does look like something will have to change.

Persnuffle surprise

Today saw Chancellor Rachel Reeves deliver the first Labour budget for 14 years. The headline figure is the extra £40 billion in tax, raised mainly by increases in employer NI and CGT, which, along with a modest adjustment to the way government debt is calculated, has given Reeves enough headroom to direct some cash towards patching up the tattered national fabric, while sticking to her promise to avoid increasing the burden on the average worker.

After Keir Starmer spending most of his time since the election warning the population of bitter medicine to come, this relatively pleasant prescription is certainly a relief, which I guess was the point of all his doom and gloom. I would have liked it to be a bit more tax-and-spendy, but at least it marks a break from the ruinous austerity that disfigured the country under the Tories.

Crypto justice

I’m not sure whether Sam Bankman-Fried will be feeling that his 25 year sentence for authoring the FTX debacle means he has got off relatively lightly; it was suggested at one point that he might be looking at something closer to a full century, but with time off for good behaviour he might yet be out before he turns 50.

Bleeding-heart liberal that I am, I can’t really see the point in locking him up at all; there must surely be some way he could be obliged to work in the service of the community, though I guess it would take a lot of highway litter-picking to pay off a debt to society that runs into the billions. Perhaps it is for the best that he serves as a cautionary example to those tempted to accumulate wealth by any means, but, given that the financial world is otherwise entirely organised to incentivise such behaviour, I suspect the only lesson aspiring SBFs may learn is “Don’t get caught”.

No crypto

In a development which won’t have surprised anyone who had paid even passing attention to the case laid out by the prosecution, a jury in Manhattan took only four hours to convict Sam Bankman-Fried, erstwhile CEO of collapsed crypto exchange FTX, on all seven charges he faced in connection with the scandal, encompassing wire fraud, money laundering, and, for good measure, securities and commodities fraud. Bankman-Fried reportedly faces more than 100 years in federal prison, and still has another trial on related charges to look forward to next year.

What’s interesting is that, despite his reputation as a DeFi genius, SBF’s crimes were spectacularly low-tech; he took the money entrusted to him by credulous depositors, and spent it on stuff. The crypto veneer added nothing, other than some distracting stardust, and a rationale for registering his company in the Bahamas, thus avoiding US regulatory purview. Even without such oversight it’s hard to see how SBF thought he could get away with it, unless he had become so intoxicated by his own publicity that he believed he really could spin gold out of digital straw.

The FTX debacle, along with various other blockchain-related fiascos, seems to have dealt a fatal blow to the NFT market, a development so predictable that even we managed to see it coming at the peak of the frenzy in 2021.

Despite all this Bitcoin is still doing relatively well, presumably because, unlike pictures of jaded simians, it actually has a use value, albeit one that appeals mainly to criminals looking to transfer funds clandestinely, though even that is not foolproof.

None of this is new of course, as we wrote way back in 2010, apropos of the blog-related scams prevalent in those days:

Persuading people to suspend their disbelief by invoking some magical new paradigm must go back to the days when enterprising cavemen extracted shiny pebbles from their gullible fellows by promising to share the secrets of how to generate revenue using that new “fire” thing that everyone was talking about.

So I think I’ll continue to pass on crypto, or whatever incomprehensible tech-based get-rich-quick scheme comes along next, and stick to old-school working for a living.

July daze redux

If I wanted to excuse the infrequent nature of my posts since the start of the year by claiming that I’ve been paralysed by existential anxiety, I wouldn’t have to look too hard to find plausible reasons for despair; take your pick from accelerating climate breakdown, attritional wars on multiple continents, the predicted rise of killer AI, unaccountable oligarchs hoarding wealth while the young slide into financial precarity, the resurgence of Donald Trump, rumoured extraterrestrial incursions, general government mendacity and incompetence… and that’s just this week’s news.

In truth though, I’ve been largely silent for almost exactly the opposite reason; the last few months have found me in a state of unfocused contentment, which hasn’t exactly been unpleasant, but has left me with a nagging feeling that I should have some stronger opinions about what’s going on, and should be taking every opportunity to share them.

There’s only so much angst anyone can take though, and I reckon I’ve done my share of agitation over the years, so I’m going to forgive myself for lapsing into a period of blissful denial, until the end of the summer at least. Assuming that ever comes

The art of patience

I’m pretty sure it was Sun Tzu who wrote something to the effect of “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by”, and so it has proved, as some of our half-forgotten prophecies seem set to bear fruit; Twitter is heading for bankruptcy, crypto is in meltdown, and Donald Trump is going to jail.

Martian forward

In a week when discouraging news wasn’t hard to find – the war in Ukraine spilling over into Poland, Donald Trump hitting the comeback trail, the UK government gearing up for another round of austerity – it was heartening to see NASA’s Artemis spacecraft finally get off the ground.

We’ve written before of our disappointment that, well into the 21st century, lunar bases aren’t yet a thing, so I’ve got my fingers crossed that the mission goes without a hitch, and the project to use the moon as a stepping stone to Mars comes to fruition within my lifetime. I don’t think things on Earth are quite so bad that leaving the planet is our only hope, or not yet at least, but it’s good to have a plan B…

On borrowed time

As predicted in this space – and, to be fair, by everyone else who had paid attention for more than 5 minutes – Liz Truss has been forced into a humiliating reverse on her signature tax-cuts policy, jettisoning Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng for good measure.

Any hopes Truss may have had that this display of relative sanity might calm the markets, or quell the discontent within her parliamentary party, seem set to be dashed, as gilt yields have continued to climb, and talk of a challenge to her leadership has if anything intensified. The only thing that might save her is Tory MPs’ instinct for self preservation; few of them would relish facing the general election that would surely be demanded by the nation if they tried to impose yet another new PM upon us.

So I expect that some face-saving compromise will be arranged whereby Truss is allowed to stay in Number 10 for a slightly more respectable period of time before bowing out, on the understanding that real power will lie with new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and other representatives of Conservative orthodoxy. Since they are exactly the people responsible for getting us into this mess in the first place I’m not optimistic that the lights will stay on this winter…

Truss twists

Liz Truss is making good progress towards her avowed ambition of emulating Tory deity Margaret Thatcher, but unfortunately for her she seems to have skipped over the Iron Lady’s glory years, and gone straight to running into trouble with an ill-advised fiscal policy.

Opinion in the press is divided on whether this development represents a fatal blow to the Truss premiership, with liberal commentators predicting she will be gone by Christmas, while their conservative counterparts try to play the episode down as a mere bump on the road to the libertarian utopia.

My take, for what it’s worth, is that Truss will survive this rocky start, and hold on until the next election, which I think may be sooner than expected, though probably not before next summer. That’s plenty of time to do more damage, like starting a renewed round of austerity just as the country dips into recession, or carrying on a cold war with the EU over Northern Ireland. Or she could abruptly change course on either issue, who knows? We should move beyond reacting to the confused floundering of the bourgeoisie, and just get on with organising to look after our own class interests instead.

Sterling work

Regular readers will know that I am fond of waxing nostalgic about the early 90s, when I was young and carefree, so perhaps I should be grateful that the government has chosen to stir up memories of that era by arranging a rerun of the 1992 Sterling crisis.

As I recall, that particular debacle came to a head a week or so before I took a trip to the US, somewhat curtailing my spending power, so I’m glad that this time around I’ve had my summer holiday before the pound started flirting with dollar parity. That’s about the only bright spot though, as Kwasi Kwarteng’s horribly misjudged mini-budget threatens to deepen the coming recession into a full-blown depression.

The gloomiest forecasts are predicting that interest rates will have to go up to around 6% to arrest the fall in sterling, with the resulting increase in mortgage costs set to hit the middle-class bedrock of Tory support particularly hard, so political reality suggests that Liz Truss will perform a signature U-turn and adopt a marginally more sustainable fiscal policy. Failing that, we might have a new Prime Minister even sooner than expected.