Brian Wilson RIP

Sad news today about the passing of archetypal tortured genius Brian Wilson.

If anyone asked I would of course say that Pet Sounds is my favourite Beach Boys album, but if I was being really honest I would have to admit that I probably like their earlier, more surf-centric stuff a bit better.

Thinking of songs like Surfin’ USA has reminded me that around the start of the year I was considering taking a trip to LA this summer. I decided against it, because of the general unfriendly vibe at the US border these days, and also the whole city-catching-on-fire thing, but I’m regretting that now, as I feel I should be there showing some solidarity in these difficult times.

VE Day 2025

The last few days have seen an extended commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2 in Europe, with street parties, military parades, and gala concerts. We’ve noted previously that, as the conflict has all but passed out of living memory, these acts of remembrance can seem to say more about the preoccupations of the present moment than the actual historical events, but the mood around the country this week has been generally somber and reflective. I guess that, with the world the way it is, it’s hardly surprising that the nation might wish to look back on a time when the Americans and the Russians were our allies in the fight to defeat fascism and build a new world.

Manchurian Trump

I wrote in a post last month that it would probably be some time before we could really make sense of the actions of the new US administration, but it turns out that I was wrong. It wasn’t hard to read the meaning of the Trump/Vance beatdown of Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, televised live from the Oval Office to a shocked world; we are now back in an era of Great Power politics, where nations have no permanent alliances, only permanent interests, and Emperor Trump will grant no favours to those who do not cower before him.

In such circumstances even a peacenik like me doesn’t need much convincing that rearmament is a sensible policy, though obviously I’d be in favour of paying for it by taxing the rich rather than cutting aid to the poor. Strengthening ties with more reliable allies like France and Germany seems like a no-brainer too.

One question that might have to wait for history to answer is whether Trump is an active agent of Vladimir Putin, or merely a useful idiot. Perhaps he was brainwashed during his infamous Moscow trip, then sent back to infiltrate the White House and do the Kremlin’s bidding, though it does seem more likely that Putin, like the rest of us, can scarcely believe that Trump has managed to con his way into power, but isn’t going to let a lucky break like that pass him by.

Longitudinal Trumpism

One of my favourite quotes is Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai’s 1972 comment “It’s too early to say”, uttered in reply to a question from Richard Nixon on the significance of the French Revolution. It has subsequently been reported that, due to a translation error, Zhou was under the impression that Nixon was referring to events in Paris in 1968 rather than 1789, so he wasn’t taking quite such a long-term view as had been thought, but still, I think that the general principle that one should hold off on making judgements until sufficient time has passed is essentially sound.

I’ve been thinking of this as I’ve watched the flurry of activity that has unfolded in Washington since Donald Trump’s second inauguration last month, every day bringing news of some fresh lunacy. Is it all part of a cunning strategy, a smokescreen to distract us from the real villainy? Or is the performative cruelty and transparent grifting actually as much of a plan as Trump and his acolytes have?

I guess time will tell, though, if I ignore my own advice against giving instant opinions, I would lean towards the view that they don’t have much of a blueprint beyond pushing the boundaries until someone makes them stop, or, failing that, until reality intrudes upon their fantasies.

I suspect it may be several years before we can really make sense of it all though – perhaps whoever is running China in 2225 will feel they have enough perspective to offer a verdict.

Trumpocalypse two

I have to admit that, around this point eight years ago, I was relatively relaxed about the prospect of Donald Trump ascending to the office of President of the United States. The fact that I was an old white guy living an ocean away helped of course, but I was also calmed by a residual faith in the essential immutability of government institutions; short of burning everything to the ground it is actually very difficult to effect significant change to the political landscape of an advanced society like the US or UK. This is usually immensely frustrating for those of us of a more progressive nature, but it is sometimes reassuring to know that not everything is lost just because the crazy people have temporarily taken charge.

Did my lack of concern turn out to be justified? I guess that I personally didn’t do too badly, but Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, hundreds of thousands of excess Covid deaths, and families separated at the border, were only a few of the reasons that those less privileged than I might beg to differ.

That said, the US government remained robust enough to see off the laughably incompetent coup attempt, and had Joe Biden directed his DoJ to be a bit more forceful in going after Trump for the many crimes he committed during his time in office then we might have seen the back of him. Alas, with typical liberal timidity, Joe let Donald off the hook, and now we are where we are.

I am thus somewhat less sanguine about how the next four years will work out, especially since the people Trump is recruiting suggests that his second administration will be a veritable carnival of reaction.

Are there any reasons to be hopeful? The fact that the congressional GOP couldn’t quite stomach Trump’s demand to shut down the government just before the holidays may be a sign that they won’t go along with all his insanity, though whether he will actually need their cooperation may well be a moot point. Putting obviously unqualified people in charge of big departments will make it easier for the career bureaucrats who know how everything works to maintain business as usual. And perhaps Trump himself will recall that being President is a pretty sweet gig, even with the checks and balances, and that wrecking the joint may be considerably more trouble than it is worth.

Or am I just whistling in the dark? Is this really the time that we go to hell in a handcart? I’m not quite ready to succumb to despair just yet; I’m still enough of a dialectical materialist to believe that human progress is a historical inevitability, and that any current difficulties are merely a bump in the road towards fully realised communism. I’ll stay as involved as I can in resisting the spread of Trumpism on these shores, and I’m sure it won’t be too long before my American comrades see it off as well.

Trump resurgent?

This time four years ago we were contemplating the question of whether the Trump administration would be viewed by posterity as a minor bump on the road of progress, or if his defeat in 2020 would prove to be only a temporary setback to the onward march of American fascism.

Well, now we know the answer, and it wasn’t even close, Trump comfortably winning the popular vote as well as the Electoral College, and the GOP coming out on top in the Senate, and perhaps also the House.

I must admit that, in the aftermath of January 2021, I thought it was all over for Trump personally, and that the movement he had sucessfully marshalled, for a while at least, would split, with relatively moderate elements returning to mainstream conservative politics, and the conspiracy-addled fringe fading into online insignificance. Instead the lunatics have only strengthened their control of the asylum, with the acquiescence and/or connivance of the GOP hierarchy.

And, it must be said, the result tells us something about the nature of society in the US. The electorate know all about Trump, and a majority of them like what they see; the virulent racism and toxic misogyny are a feature, not a bug.

Is this surprising, when one considers the whole span of the history of the USA, a nation founded on genocide and slavery, where legally-sanctioned racial discrimination was the norm within living memory? Was the advance of civil liberties in the latter half of the 20th century merely a blip, destined to be erased as the country reverts to type?

Perhaps I’m delusional, but I’m staying positive. Many obstacles can be put in Trump’s way, both personal and institutional, to frustrate the implementation of his reactionary agenda. The fight will be hard, but it’s not unwinnable.

Seriously? (Redux)

Regular readers will be aware that we’re not averse to a bit of nostalgia here at SLS, but I have to say that I wasn’t in any rush to relive 2016.

It will take me some time to process this turn of events; for now I can only repeat the question: America – WTF dudes?

My traditional message to my friends in the US of A

I don’t know for sure that this made the difference last time around, but why take a chance?

[Thanks once more to Matt Groening.]

Election prediction: 2024 US Presidential edition

We’ve established who we think should be the next President of the USA, but who do we think will win the prize?

I have to say that I have a bad feeling about this. The polling analysis at FiveThirtyEight, which I mostly trust, has Harris clearly ahead in the popular vote, but Trump just edging it in the Electoral College, though they do caution that it’s all within the margin of error.

The pessimistic view is that the polls are underestimating Trump’s support, due to sampling bias underweighting his rural base, and people being reluctant to admit, perhaps even to themselves, that they’re going to vote for the unstable fascist. This would be in line with what happened in 2016 and 2020, and, if true, would see Trump win fairly comfortably.

A more optimistic take would hold that, to the contrary, the polls are understating Harris’ chances. There are two reasons to believe this; firstly that the GOP has been pumping out figures that inflate Trump’s numbers to establish plausible grounds to dispute a Harris victory, and secondly that the pollsters are not picking up just how much white suburban women are recoiling from the toxic misogyny of the Trump/Vance ticket. The over-performance of Democrats in the 2022 midterms, and the success of constitutional amendments favouring reproductive autonomy, particularly in red states, give some weight to this argument.

This uncertainty prompted me to seek out some firsthand intelligence, but everyone I know in the US is a progressive resident of California, and while they are all lovely people, their opinions are not exactly a reliable insight into the mind of Middle America, so that wasn’t really much help.

All this leaves me telling myself that Harris will win, but not really believing it. “Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will” is what I used to say, but I think I’m getting too old for this kind of stress…

Persnuffle surprise

Today saw Chancellor Rachel Reeves deliver the first Labour budget for 14 years. The headline figure is the extra £40 billion in tax, raised mainly by increases in employer NI and CGT, which, along with a modest adjustment to the way government debt is calculated, has given Reeves enough headroom to direct some cash towards patching up the tattered national fabric, while sticking to her promise to avoid increasing the burden on the average worker.

After Keir Starmer spending most of his time since the election warning the population of bitter medicine to come, this relatively pleasant prescription is certainly a relief, which I guess was the point of all his doom and gloom. I would have liked it to be a bit more tax-and-spendy, but at least it marks a break from the ruinous austerity that disfigured the country under the Tories.