Oscar predictions 2025

Having managed to see around half of the movies in contention, and at least read something about most of the others, here is my semi-confident forecast of how the main awards will be distributed tomorrow evening:

  • Best Actor
    • Timothée Chalamet
  • Best Actress
    • Mikey Madison
  • Best Supporting Actor
    • Kieran Culkin
  • Best Supporting Actress
    • Felicity Jones
  • Best Director
    • Brady Corbet
  • Best International Feature
    • I’m Still Here
  • Best Picture
    • The Brutalist

That’s what I think will happen, and pretty much what I think should happen too; the main exception being that I would pick Nickel Boys over The Brutalist for Best Picture (and Hundreds of Beavers over both of them had it not, inexplicably, failed to gain a nomination).

Manchurian Trump

I wrote in a post last month that it would probably be some time before we could really make sense of the actions of the new US administration, but it turns out that I was wrong. It wasn’t hard to read the meaning of the Trump/Vance beatdown of Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, televised live from the Oval Office to a shocked world; we are now back in an era of Great Power politics, where nations have no permanent alliances, only permanent interests, and Emperor Trump will grant no favours to those who do not cower before him.

In such circumstances even a peacenik like me doesn’t need much convincing that rearmament is a sensible policy, though obviously I’d be in favour of paying for it by taxing the rich rather than cutting aid to the poor. Strengthening ties with more reliable allies like France and Germany seems like a no-brainer too.

One question that might have to wait for history to answer is whether Trump is an active agent of Vladimir Putin, or merely a useful idiot. Perhaps he was brainwashed during his infamous Moscow trip, then sent back to infiltrate the White House and do the Kremlin’s bidding, though it does seem more likely that Putin, like the rest of us, can scarcely believe that Trump has managed to con his way into power, but isn’t going to let a lucky break like that pass him by.

Go Birds

I finally managed to come up with an accurate sports prediction, though I have to admit that backing the Eagles to beat the Chiefs wasn’t too much of a stretch, if one looked at the actual numbers rather than buying in to the “invincible Mahomes” narrative.

Superbowl LIX prediction

I must admit that I rather lost interest in the NFL last month, as my adopted team stumbled towards the end of a disappointing season, but I have paid enough attention to have an opinion on who will win the final game tonight; Philadelphia.

Longitudinal Trumpism

One of my favourite quotes is Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai’s 1972 comment “It’s too early to say”, uttered in reply to a question from Richard Nixon on the significance of the French Revolution. It has subsequently been reported that, due to a translation error, Zhou was under the impression that Nixon was referring to events in Paris in 1968 rather than 1789, so he wasn’t taking quite such a long-term view as had been thought, but still, I think that the general principle that one should hold off on making judgements until sufficient time has passed is essentially sound.

I’ve been thinking of this as I’ve watched the flurry of activity that has unfolded in Washington since Donald Trump’s second inauguration last month, every day bringing news of some fresh lunacy. Is it all part of a cunning strategy, a smokescreen to distract us from the real villainy? Or is the performative cruelty and transparent grifting actually as much of a plan as Trump and his acolytes have?

I guess time will tell, though, if I ignore my own advice against giving instant opinions, I would lean towards the view that they don’t have much of a blueprint beyond pushing the boundaries until someone makes them stop, or, failing that, until reality intrudes upon their fantasies.

I suspect it may be several years before we can really make sense of it all though – perhaps whoever is running China in 2225 will feel they have enough perspective to offer a verdict.

David Lynch RIP

Sad news today of the passing of film director David Lynch, undoubtedly one of the finest auteurs of his generation.

My first exposure to Lynch’s genius was seeing Eraserhead when I was still at school, and I’ve followed his work ever since. As I’ve noted previously, Twin Peaks was a major influence on my cultural outlook during my student days. On my initial visit to Los Angeles in the early 90s practically the first thing I did was to track down a copy of the LA Reader, so that I could cut out The Angriest Dog in the World; that comic strip, now yellowed with age, is still a prized possession. Mulholland Drive became my favourite movie the first time I saw it back in 2001, and has remained so ever since, its phantasmagorical beauty beguiling me anew with each viewing. Of all Lynch’s creations I am perhaps fondest of Rabbits, which is incomparable in its unsettling incomprehensibity.

I could go on all night with examples – Dennis Hopper as Frank in Blue Velvet, the costume design in Dune, Lynch’s masterful use of music – but for some reason I feel a sudden need for some coffee and cherry pie

LA aflame

Even though I’m thousands of miles away I’ve been feeling very disturbed by the news from Southern California; principally, of course, due to the appalling loss of life, property, and peace of mind being endured by the residents of LA County, but also because, even to my supposedly rational mind, it seems like a terrifying omen. A bastion of progressive values literally burning to the ground is the sort of unsubtle metaphor for the times we find ourselves living in that would normally be dismissed as ridiculously blunt in a work of fiction, yet, the way things are going at the moment, it feels, if anything, like an understatement.

New Year optimism: 2025 edition

Despite my generally curmudgeonly nature I’m not entirely immune to the cultural currents that identify this time of year, a few days after midwinter, with a new spring just about imaginable, as an opportunity for reinvention, both personal and societal, and a reason to believe that the world, and my life within it, can only get better.

I’m sure that this feeling won’t last the week, but I’ll enjoy it while I can…

2024: The year in review – Part 2: Blogging

Our very first post of 2024 set out a number of predictions for the year ahead; I tried to keep them vague enough to encompass a range of possible outcomes, but even with that precaution I still mostly ended up being well wide of the mark. My hopes that the conflicts in Palestine, Ukraine, and Sudan might wind down proved to be naively optimistic, with the genocide in Gaza in particular expanding to a horrific scale. I did foresee the demise of the Conservative government in the UK, but perhaps overestimated how much would change under Labour. I thought Joe Biden would be reelected, and backed the 49ers for the Superbowl.

Given that unpromising start, it was perhaps inevitable that my blogging output over the following twelve months would be less than stellar. I did manage more than twice as many posts as in 2023, and our traffic was up a bit too, but the quality could charitably be described as uneven. This is reflected in the statistics; our top ten most read are an essentially random selection from the archive:

  1. Eve of destruction
  2. Indefinite article
  3. Futurama
  4. That gum you like is going to come back in style
  5. Working for the Linden Dollar
  6. The Linden Principle
  7. Leap of imagination
  8. Change don’t come easy
  9. How ‘bout them Cubs?
  10. Seriously?

My favourite posts of the year mostly came in a rare burst of energy in the spring, with another flurry around the November election; some are upbeat, though a slightly disturbing number of them concern the death of well-known figures:

One trend that has definitely accelerated over the past three or four years is a reduction in our geographical reach; there was a time when we had readers in over 100 nations, but now just about all our traffic comes from the UK, with even the US and other anglophone countries dropping off sharply this year. We still have a few visitors from foreign lands though; here are the top ten:

  1. United Kingdom
  2. United States
  3. China
  4. Germany
  5. Canada
  6. Portugal
  7. India
  8. Netherlands
  9. Singapore
  10. Vietnam

There are many topics I should have written more about; the aforementioned wars, political and economic developments in Europe and the US, the rising influence of AI and other technological novelties, to name but a few. Even if I give myself a pass for avoiding such gloomy fare, I could still have posted a bit more frequently on cultural issues.

A particularly glaring omission is the complete lack of commentary on Second Life, despite it ostensibly being the prime subject of this whole project. The new owners of the platform finally got around to releasing a mobile viewer earlier in the year, and, since I still pay nearly $100 annually to maintain my premium membership, I was actually given advance access, and thus had the opportunity to be among the first to review it. I did get as far as logging in, and wandered around the grid for a while, but I wasn’t really inspired to write anything. I found the interface as hard to master as I had when I first tried the PC version back in 2007, and once I did get the hang of it there was still the same old SL problem; nobody is there, and there’s nothing to do. To be fair, I was using an old iPhone with a tiny screen, so I probably didn’t get the best visual results; I might give it another look if I upgrade my phone next year.

Thinking about the twelve months ahead it’s hard to know what to expect. If there’s one thing I’m sure of after the last few years it’s that I’m inching ever closer to Socratic Wisdom; perhaps 2025 will be the year when I can finally proclaim that all I know is that I know nothing. That said, I will resolve to try a little harder on the blogging front, if for no other reason than to give me something to look back on next December.

On that hopeful note I’ll wish all our readers a happy New Year, and may it find you healthy and prosperous.

2024: The year in review – Part 1: Culture

Looking at my Tumblr I’m reassured to see that I did consume at least a little culture during the last twelve months; I’ll try to distill each category down to a top three.

Television

Despite subscribing to Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime I almost never have time for TV shows. Only Murders in the Building: Season 4 was the sole series I watched all the way through, so I guess it takes gold by default, though it was pretty funny, so it would probably have won even with competition.

Film

My favourite movie by a mile this year was ultra-violent live-action Looney Tune Hundreds of Beavers, with Perfect Days and I Saw the TV Glow also making the podium, and Werner Herzog biopic Radical Dreamer just missing out. The 50th anniversary reissue of Francis Ford Coppola’s The Conversation was essential; his latest work Megalopolis rather less so, though it certainly had its moments.

Books

Paul Auster’s passing in April prompted me to catch up with his New York Trilogy, which turned out to be the highlight of a year when I mostly avoided more recent fiction; Jonathan Lethem’s Brooklyn Crime Novel was the exception and takes the silver. Bronze goes to non-fiction; Zeke Faux’s exposé of the crypto industry Number Go Up.

Music

I’ve listened to a lot of radio this year, mainly US college stations, which inspired me to compile a long list of new albums to get hold of, very few of which I actually got around to purchasing. Of those I did buy my top three are probably Fairweather Friend by The Umbrellas, News of the Universe by La Luz, and Manning Fireworks by MJ Lenderman, though on another day I might include Sierra Ferrell’s Trail Of Flowers, Rooting for Love by Laetitia Sadier, or This Is How Tomorrow Moves by beabadoobee. The best live shows I saw featured the aforementioned Umbrellas, Belle and Sebastian, and Jane Weaver. I even had a favourite opera – Marx in London!

That’s a brief run through the culture of 2024 as seen through my very limited lens; come back tomorrow for a look at the year in blogging.