Second Life Shrink

No campaign for old men

I’ve been back from vacation for a few days now, but I’m not feeling entirely ready to re-engage with reality just yet, what with the thoroughly depressing state of the world right now. Any optimism I felt after the UK election, or the setback for the far-right in France, has evaporated as more considered analysis has led to the inescapable conclusion that neither event represented a popular swing to the left. In the former case a deeply unenthusiastic electorate chose a promise of basic competence over an incumbent government that had descended into chaos, while across the channel the hastily-assembled anti-fascist alliance has little to unite it other than distaste for the RN, which remains a significant force.

Still, I can’t stop thinking about politics forever, so I guess I will have to try to process the recent events in the US, with the election there due in a little over three months.

Surprisingly, the most dramatic development, the near-assassination of Donald Trump, looks like it may have the least impact on the final result. The fact that someone decided to take a shot at him, while clearly regrettable, was not, in the context of the aggressively confrontational tone of political discourse that Trump and his allies have fostered, much of a shock, and won’t have changed what people think about him. Trump was presented with a golden opportunity to occupy the moral high ground, but characteristically failed to grasp it, instead using his RNC acceptance speech to air his usual litany of semi-coherent grievances. More significant perhaps was his choice of J.D. Vance as a running mate, signalling a focus on the White Christian Nationalist core of GOP support, and indicating that things may get very unpleasant indeed should they, one way or another, come out on top in November.

On the Democratic side there are at least some signs that the party hierarchy is belatedly realising that Joe Biden may be not the candidate best placed to beat Trump. Whether this insight will translate into action is another question of course, but it’s not inconceivable that Joe will be persuaded to step aside for a younger nominee, in theory allowing the Democrats to reframe the narrative and once again present themselves as agents of progressive change.

Whatever happens with either candidate, it’s difficult to believe that the rhetoric will become more temperate as the campaign goes on, and even harder to imagine the country coming together in peace and harmony after the votes have been counted.

I’m getting too old to worry about this shit, so for the sake of avoiding excessive stress I should probably just avert my eyes for the next 100 days, though it seems unlikely that I’ll be able to insulate myself from the news entirely. Perhaps good sense will break out, everyone will step back from the brink, and I’ll be able to start planning my next trip back to the US safe in the knowledge that it will still be there.

Election reaction 2024

I may be half a continent away, and somewhat irked by my disenfranchisement, but I still experienced a moment of uncomplicated joy when I awoke this morning to the news that the Tories had not just lost the election, but been thoroughly humiliated in the process, fitting reward for their years of misgovernance.

Only a moment though; some contend that the Labour victory represents the rebirth of sensible social democracy, but I’m not convinced, and even if it does it is far from certain that such a programme would be equal to the challenges facing the nation.

There will be time to worry about that in the future I guess; for now we should enjoy the discomfiture of our erstwhile rulers, and celebrate even a small step towards a better tomorrow.

Election dissatisfaction

As readers may have surmised from the paucity of posts on the topic, I have not been wildly enthused by the ongoing UK election, as the Tories shambolic campaign has underperformed already rock-bottom expectations, and Labour have remained laser-focused on one simple but uninspiring pledge; that they will be exactly like the Conservatives, but competent.

Actually, that’s probably unfair on Labour; they do have some vaguely progressive policies, and while the opinion polls suggest that Keir Starmer could propose the establishment of a workers’ republic and still win handily, such is the country’s desire for change, it’s understandable that party strategists might be fretting that wavering Tory voters may rediscover their loyalty in the privacy of the voting booth.

All that said, I had been looking forward to casting a vote, probably for the Greens, since I actually know their local candidate personally, and I’m not inclined to break the habit of a lifetime by supporting anyone who has a chance of winning, but I’m not going to have that opportunity alas, since I’m out of the country for the next 10 days. I did apply for a postal vote as soon as the election date was announced, but, with the inefficiency that seems to characterise every part of the state these days, our local election board didn’t get around to issuing the papers until after my departure.

Looking abroad doesn’t engender much more optimism in the future of democracy. France goes to the polls tomorrow with the far right tipped to do well, and Democrats in US are experiencing a collective panic attack following Joe Biden’s less-than-stellar performance in the first Presidential debate.

I guess it’s always possible that these setbacks will galvanise the left, but that’s what we’ve been telling ourselves for the best part of two decades now, so I’m finding it hard to keep the hope alive…

General Election 2024

In a somewhat unexpected development my prediction of a summer election has turned out to be spot on. The general consensus among political commentators had been that Rishi Sunak would hold off going to the country until at least November, in the hope that the economy might have picked up enough by then to underwrite some crowd-pleasing tax cuts, but he has opted to gamble on a snap poll in July instead. This rather suggests that he believes that the state of the country in two months will be bad enough to render him even less electable than he is now, if such a thing is possible, which is not a particularly reassuring message.

So we can look forward to six weeks or so of what is likely to be a deeply unpleasant campaign, as the Tories fall back on the blend of xenophobia and culture-war fear-mongering that is their only hope of distracting the electorate from their actual record in government. In theory, all Labour will have to do is stay quiet and look competent, which I’m sure they have the discipline for, so I can’t see the final outcome being anything other than a change of regime, which will be relief after all the nonsense of the last few years.