Oscar predictions 2026 revisited

So, four out of seven of my Oscar tips turned out to be on the money, which I think isn’t too shabby. Of the three I missed, two involved films that I haven’t seen yet, and the other was the wrong actor in the correct movie (and I’d argue that it was the Academy voters who erred; Sean Penn may have had a bigger role, but Benicio del Toro gave the story its moral compass).

Oscar predictions 2026

A last-minute forecast this year; a movie-viewing spree this week has allowed me to belatedly catch up with most of the nominated films, so my tips are at least semi-informed.

  • Best Picture
    • One Battle After Another
  • Best Actor
    • Michael B Jordan
  • Best Actress
    • Jessie Buckley
  • Best Supporting Actor
    • Benicio del Toro
  • Best Supporting Actress
    • Teyana Taylor
  • Best Director
    • Paul Thomas Anderson
  • Best International Feature
    • The Secret Agent

As you can see One Battle After Another was my favourite movie of the year, probably because I can identify with Leonardo DiCaprio’s bewildered ex-radical. I did consider The Secret Agent for Best Picture, but I think it’s got a better chance of picking up the International award.

Of the other front-runners, I found Hamnet a bit dull and emotionally manipulative, and Sinners was entertaining, but disjointed, though they were elevated by the performances of Jessie Buckley and Michael B Jordan respectively. Marty Supreme was impressive, but fatally undermined for me by a protagonist who was just too much of an unlikeable asshole to root for. Sentimental Value looks like the sort of film that I would enjoy, and perhaps it would have featured more in my list if I had been organised enough to see it by now.

I’m tempted to stay up late to live-blog the ceremony tomorrow, but I have to go to work the next day, so I’ll probably skip it and come back with an update on Monday.

2025: The year in review – Part 1: Culture

It’s not been a vintage year on the cultural front; I have just about kept up a steady pace of consumption, but my appetite for seeking out novel experience is definitely not what it was. That said, there were some highlights I feel are worth noting; they are listed below.

Television

For various reasons I have completely given up on watching TV in recent times, but I made one exception this year; an old favourite, Twin Peaks. Inspired by the sad news of the passing of David Lynch in January I acquired the box set of all three seasons, and proceeded to view it in a properly nostalgic style; one episode at a time, at more or less weekly intervals. I threw in Fire Walk with Me after finishing season two, then left a gap (though not 25 years) before starting season three, which I haven’t quite completed yet, though I should wrap it up sometime next month. I hadn’t revisited Twin Peaks since it originally aired, so I was a little worried that it might not be as good as I remembered, but I’m glad to report that it did not disappoint in any way, retaining its capacity to intrigue and shock in equal measure. Even if I had caught some other shows this year I’m pretty sure that none of them would have topped Lynch’s beguiling masterpiece.

Film

I did quite well with cinema-going in the first half of the year, then fell off a bit after the summer; I’ll have to catch up ahead of the Oscars. Of the movies I saw this year I particularly liked Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, A Complete Unknown, The Phoenician Scheme, and Die My Love. For my favourite I’m oscillating between One Battle After Another and Nouvelle Vague, with the latter just winning out.

Books

I didn’t get through much new fiction this year; far too much of my reading time was taken up by staying current with the news, though I can’t say much of that left me feeling particularly informed. Of the books I did read the most memorable were Death Valley by Melissa Broder, The Rest of Our Lives by Ben Markovits, and my favourite, the dreamlike and unsettling An Earthquake Is a Shaking of the Surface of the Earth by Anna Moschovakis.

Music

I bought a respectable number of new records this year; here are my top five:

  • Uncollected Noise New York ’88-’90 – Galaxie 500
  • Instant Holograms On Metal Film – Stereolab
  • Tunnel Vision – Beach Bunny
  • Double Infinity – Big Thief
  • Snocaps – Snocaps

I didn’t see much live music, but the shows I caught were pretty good; the best was courtesy of the reliably energetic Beach Bunny.

Come back tomorrow for our review of the year in blogging…

Oscar predictions 2025 revisited

Three out of seven for my predictions this year, a slightly better score than last time around. I’m a bit surprised that Anora did so well; I enjoyed it, but The Brutalist did seem more like the kind of movie that the members of the Academy would deem worthy of honour. None of the other awards were too outrageous I guess, apart perhaps from Zoe Saldaña picking up Best Supporting Actress, though I suppose she did give the one of the better performances in the otherwise wildly overrated Emilia Pérez.

Oscar predictions 2025

Having managed to see around half of the movies in contention, and at least read something about most of the others, here is my semi-confident forecast of how the main awards will be distributed tomorrow evening:

  • Best Actor
    • Timothée Chalamet
  • Best Actress
    • Mikey Madison
  • Best Supporting Actor
    • Kieran Culkin
  • Best Supporting Actress
    • Felicity Jones
  • Best Director
    • Brady Corbet
  • Best International Feature
    • I’m Still Here
  • Best Picture
    • The Brutalist

That’s what I think will happen, and pretty much what I think should happen too; the main exception being that I would pick Nickel Boys over The Brutalist for Best Picture (and Hundreds of Beavers over both of them had it not, inexplicably, failed to gain a nomination).

Manchurian Trump

I wrote in a post last month that it would probably be some time before we could really make sense of the actions of the new US administration, but it turns out that I was wrong. It wasn’t hard to read the meaning of the Trump/Vance beatdown of Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, televised live from the Oval Office to a shocked world; we are now back in an era of Great Power politics, where nations have no permanent alliances, only permanent interests, and Emperor Trump will grant no favours to those who do not cower before him.

In such circumstances even a peacenik like me doesn’t need much convincing that rearmament is a sensible policy, though obviously I’d be in favour of paying for it by taxing the rich rather than cutting aid to the poor. Strengthening ties with more reliable allies like France and Germany seems like a no-brainer too.

One question that might have to wait for history to answer is whether Trump is an active agent of Vladimir Putin, or merely a useful idiot. Perhaps he was brainwashed during his infamous Moscow trip, then sent back to infiltrate the White House and do the Kremlin’s bidding, though it does seem more likely that Putin, like the rest of us, can scarcely believe that Trump has managed to con his way into power, but isn’t going to let a lucky break like that pass him by.

David Lynch RIP

Sad news today of the passing of film director David Lynch, undoubtedly one of the finest auteurs of his generation.

My first exposure to Lynch’s genius was seeing Eraserhead when I was still at school, and I’ve followed his work ever since. As I’ve noted previously, Twin Peaks was a major influence on my cultural outlook during my student days. On my initial visit to Los Angeles in the early 90s practically the first thing I did was to track down a copy of the LA Reader, so that I could cut out The Angriest Dog in the World; that comic strip, now yellowed with age, is still a prized possession. Mulholland Drive became my favourite movie the first time I saw it back in 2001, and has remained so ever since, its phantasmagorical beauty beguiling me anew with each viewing. Of all Lynch’s creations I am perhaps fondest of Rabbits, which is incomparable in its unsettling incomprehensibity.

I could go on all night with examples – Dennis Hopper as Frank in Blue Velvet, the costume design in Dune, Lynch’s masterful use of music – but for some reason I feel a sudden need for some coffee and cherry pie

2024: The year in review – Part 1: Culture

Looking at my Tumblr I’m reassured to see that I did consume at least a little culture during the last twelve months; I’ll try to distill each category down to a top three.

Television

Despite subscribing to Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime I almost never have time for TV shows. Only Murders in the Building: Season 4 was the sole series I watched all the way through, so I guess it takes gold by default, though it was pretty funny, so it would probably have won even with competition.

Film

My favourite movie by a mile this year was ultra-violent live-action Looney Tune Hundreds of Beavers, with Perfect Days and I Saw the TV Glow also making the podium, and Werner Herzog biopic Radical Dreamer just missing out. The 50th anniversary reissue of Francis Ford Coppola’s The Conversation was essential; his latest work Megalopolis rather less so, though it certainly had its moments.

Books

Paul Auster’s passing in April prompted me to catch up with his New York Trilogy, which turned out to be the highlight of a year when I mostly avoided more recent fiction; Jonathan Lethem’s Brooklyn Crime Novel was the exception and takes the silver. Bronze goes to non-fiction; Zeke Faux’s exposé of the crypto industry Number Go Up.

Music

I’ve listened to a lot of radio this year, mainly US college stations, which inspired me to compile a long list of new albums to get hold of, very few of which I actually got around to purchasing. Of those I did buy my top three are probably Fairweather Friend by The Umbrellas, News of the Universe by La Luz, and Manning Fireworks by MJ Lenderman, though on another day I might include Sierra Ferrell’s Trail Of Flowers, Rooting for Love by Laetitia Sadier, or This Is How Tomorrow Moves by beabadoobee. The best live shows I saw featured the aforementioned Umbrellas, Belle and Sebastian, and Jane Weaver. I even had a favourite opera – Marx in London!

That’s a brief run through the culture of 2024 as seen through my very limited lens; come back tomorrow for a look at the year in blogging.

Oscar predictions 2024 revisited

So, the Academy agreed with two of my Oscar picks, which reassures me that I’m not entirely out of touch with popular cultural opinion, but, as expected, Oppenheimer was the big winner on the night. Anatomy of a Fall, my favourite film of the year, did at least pick up the award for Best Original Screenplay, and its canine star Messi was undoubtedly the star of the red carpet, so I’ll take that as further confirmation of my critical acumen.

Oscar predictions 2024

It’s that time of year again; here’s how I would vote were I a member of the august Academy:

  • Best Actor
    • Jeffrey Wright
  • Best Actress
    • Emma Stone
  • Best Supporting Actor
    • Ryan Gosling
  • Best Supporting Actress
    • Da’Vine Joy Randolph
  • Best Director
    • Justine Triet
  • Best International Feature
    • Perfect Days
  • Best Picture
    • Anatomy of a Fall

Do I think any of my choices will actually win? Judging by what the critics are saying, and how the Golden Globes and BAFTAs turned out, I reckon Emma Stone and Da’Vine Joy Randolph have a pretty solid chance of picking up a statuette, and Ryan Gosling might just sneak in too, but otherwise it looks like Oppenheimer will sweep the board, with The Zone of Interest favourite for Best International Feature.

I have to say that I wasn’t that taken with Oppenheimer; I thought it was too long, and not as profound as it seemed to think it was. In my opinion Anatomy of a Fall, Perfect Days, and American Fiction were all much better, exploring universal themes while staying rooted in individual experience. That said, Oppenheimer does have the combination of grand spectacle and well-drawn characters that made it a genuine cultural phenomenon, so I guess Christopher Nolan deserves the accolades that seem likely to rain down on him come Sunday.