Oscar predictions 2025 revisited

Three out of seven for my predictions this year, a slightly better score than last time around. I’m a bit surprised that Anora did so well; I enjoyed it, but The Brutalist did seem more like the kind of movie that the members of the Academy would deem worthy of honour. None of the other awards were too outrageous I guess, apart perhaps from Zoe Saldaña picking up Best Supporting Actress, though I suppose she did give the one of the better performances in the otherwise wildly overrated Emilia Pérez.

Oscar predictions 2025

Having managed to see around half of the movies in contention, and at least read something about most of the others, here is my semi-confident forecast of how the main awards will be distributed tomorrow evening:

  • Best Actor
    • Timothée Chalamet
  • Best Actress
    • Mikey Madison
  • Best Supporting Actor
    • Kieran Culkin
  • Best Supporting Actress
    • Felicity Jones
  • Best Director
    • Brady Corbet
  • Best International Feature
    • I’m Still Here
  • Best Picture
    • The Brutalist

That’s what I think will happen, and pretty much what I think should happen too; the main exception being that I would pick Nickel Boys over The Brutalist for Best Picture (and Hundreds of Beavers over both of them had it not, inexplicably, failed to gain a nomination).

Manchurian Trump

I wrote in a post last month that it would probably be some time before we could really make sense of the actions of the new US administration, but it turns out that I was wrong. It wasn’t hard to read the meaning of the Trump/Vance beatdown of Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, televised live from the Oval Office to a shocked world; we are now back in an era of Great Power politics, where nations have no permanent alliances, only permanent interests, and Emperor Trump will grant no favours to those who do not cower before him.

In such circumstances even a peacenik like me doesn’t need much convincing that rearmament is a sensible policy, though obviously I’d be in favour of paying for it by taxing the rich rather than cutting aid to the poor. Strengthening ties with more reliable allies like France and Germany seems like a no-brainer too.

One question that might have to wait for history to answer is whether Trump is an active agent of Vladimir Putin, or merely a useful idiot. Perhaps he was brainwashed during his infamous Moscow trip, then sent back to infiltrate the White House and do the Kremlin’s bidding, though it does seem more likely that Putin, like the rest of us, can scarcely believe that Trump has managed to con his way into power, but isn’t going to let a lucky break like that pass him by.

David Lynch RIP

Sad news today of the passing of film director David Lynch, undoubtedly one of the finest auteurs of his generation.

My first exposure to Lynch’s genius was seeing Eraserhead when I was still at school, and I’ve followed his work ever since. As I’ve noted previously, Twin Peaks was a major influence on my cultural outlook during my student days. On my initial visit to Los Angeles in the early 90s practically the first thing I did was to track down a copy of the LA Reader, so that I could cut out The Angriest Dog in the World; that comic strip, now yellowed with age, is still a prized possession. Mulholland Drive became my favourite movie the first time I saw it back in 2001, and has remained so ever since, its phantasmagorical beauty beguiling me anew with each viewing. Of all Lynch’s creations I am perhaps fondest of Rabbits, which is incomparable in its unsettling incomprehensibity.

I could go on all night with examples – Dennis Hopper as Frank in Blue Velvet, the costume design in Dune, Lynch’s masterful use of music – but for some reason I feel a sudden need for some coffee and cherry pie

2024: The year in review – Part 1: Culture

Looking at my Tumblr I’m reassured to see that I did consume at least a little culture during the last twelve months; I’ll try to distill each category down to a top three.

Television

Despite subscribing to Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime I almost never have time for TV shows. Only Murders in the Building: Season 4 was the sole series I watched all the way through, so I guess it takes gold by default, though it was pretty funny, so it would probably have won even with competition.

Film

My favourite movie by a mile this year was ultra-violent live-action Looney Tune Hundreds of Beavers, with Perfect Days and I Saw the TV Glow also making the podium, and Werner Herzog biopic Radical Dreamer just missing out. The 50th anniversary reissue of Francis Ford Coppola’s The Conversation was essential; his latest work Megalopolis rather less so, though it certainly had its moments.

Books

Paul Auster’s passing in April prompted me to catch up with his New York Trilogy, which turned out to be the highlight of a year when I mostly avoided more recent fiction; Jonathan Lethem’s Brooklyn Crime Novel was the exception and takes the silver. Bronze goes to non-fiction; Zeke Faux’s exposé of the crypto industry Number Go Up.

Music

I’ve listened to a lot of radio this year, mainly US college stations, which inspired me to compile a long list of new albums to get hold of, very few of which I actually got around to purchasing. Of those I did buy my top three are probably Fairweather Friend by The Umbrellas, News of the Universe by La Luz, and Manning Fireworks by MJ Lenderman, though on another day I might include Sierra Ferrell’s Trail Of Flowers, Rooting for Love by Laetitia Sadier, or This Is How Tomorrow Moves by beabadoobee. The best live shows I saw featured the aforementioned Umbrellas, Belle and Sebastian, and Jane Weaver. I even had a favourite opera – Marx in London!

That’s a brief run through the culture of 2024 as seen through my very limited lens; come back tomorrow for a look at the year in blogging.

Oscar predictions 2024 revisited

So, the Academy agreed with two of my Oscar picks, which reassures me that I’m not entirely out of touch with popular cultural opinion, but, as expected, Oppenheimer was the big winner on the night. Anatomy of a Fall, my favourite film of the year, did at least pick up the award for Best Original Screenplay, and its canine star Messi was undoubtedly the star of the red carpet, so I’ll take that as further confirmation of my critical acumen.

Oscar predictions 2024

It’s that time of year again; here’s how I would vote were I a member of the august Academy:

  • Best Actor
    • Jeffrey Wright
  • Best Actress
    • Emma Stone
  • Best Supporting Actor
    • Ryan Gosling
  • Best Supporting Actress
    • Da’Vine Joy Randolph
  • Best Director
    • Justine Triet
  • Best International Feature
    • Perfect Days
  • Best Picture
    • Anatomy of a Fall

Do I think any of my choices will actually win? Judging by what the critics are saying, and how the Golden Globes and BAFTAs turned out, I reckon Emma Stone and Da’Vine Joy Randolph have a pretty solid chance of picking up a statuette, and Ryan Gosling might just sneak in too, but otherwise it looks like Oppenheimer will sweep the board, with The Zone of Interest favourite for Best International Feature.

I have to say that I wasn’t that taken with Oppenheimer; I thought it was too long, and not as profound as it seemed to think it was. In my opinion Anatomy of a Fall, Perfect Days, and American Fiction were all much better, exploring universal themes while staying rooted in individual experience. That said, Oppenheimer does have the combination of grand spectacle and well-drawn characters that made it a genuine cultural phenomenon, so I guess Christopher Nolan deserves the accolades that seem likely to rain down on him come Sunday.

2023: The year in review – Part 1: Culture

Here we are at the end of December, time to look back on the year that has just passed. I’ll summarise our blogging output, such as it was, in the next post, but first up a run through of some of my personal cultural highlights of 2023.

Television – after a peak during the pandemic, my TV-watching has reverted back to being practically non-existent. The only new programme I took in was the third season of Only Murders in the Building, and even that I binge-watched over a couple of evenings. I do occasionally dip into back episodes of comedies like Arrested Development, or It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, but otherwise the medium is essentially dead to me. I’m not sure if that will change in the year ahead, though I’ll probably keep my various streaming-service subscriptions going just in case something good comes out.

Film – I did make much better use of my membership of our local art-house cinema this year, going more or less weekly for a spell, though that did tail off a bit more recently. Highlights included a Wes Anderson season ahead of the release of Asteroid City, anniversary revivals of classic films I just about remembered from the first time around, like Variety, Dazed and Confused, Gregory’s Girl, and Stop Making Sense, homage to the noughties NYC music scene Meet Me In The Bathroom, and of course summer blockbuster Barbie (though I skipped Oppenheimer, which I was not in the mood for at the time; I guess I should try to catch it before the Oscar nominations come out). My favourite film of the year was Anatomy of a Fall, an intriguingly ambiguous exploration of whether it is ever possible to really know another human being.

Books – My top read during 2023 was Richard Ford’s original Frank Bascombe trilogy, particularly The Sportswriter; the story of a middle-aged white guy navigating existential uncertainties unsurprisingly struck a chord at this point in my life. Other fiction I enjoyed included some more volumes of Armistead Maupin’s Tales of the City, Nathanael West’s lurid LA nightmare The Day of the Locust, and a re-read of Sacher-Masoch’s classic Venus in Furs. In non-fiction there was Haruki Murakami’s Novelist as a Vocation, various works by Bertrand Russell, and, balanced somewhere between philosophy and fiction, Benjamín Labatut’s meditation on the implications of Artificial Intelligence, The Maniac.

Music – I finally got with the times and signed up for a Spotify account this year, and I’ve been relying on their algorithm to supply my general background soundtrack. I’m still undecided on whether this is a good or a bad thing; it has introduced me to a few new artists, but mostly plays my old favourites. I do still read the music press, and listen to the radio, which I hope is enough to steer me towards some fresh albums; here are my top ten from 2023:

Compiling this annual retrospective, and comparing it with entries from previous years, I’m unable to escape the conclusion that the breadth of my cultural horizons is inexorably shrinking, in terms of the absolute number of books, movies and records that I consume (as enumerated in our Tumblr), but also in my willingness to look outside of my habitual preferences (which were probably always more fixed than I cared to admit). In my more pessimistic moments I consider this an inevitable consequence of advancing age, but every now and again I feel a spark of enthusiasm for some new experience, which is enough to reassure me that I’m not ready for the scrapyard just yet. Perhaps 2024 will be a year of personal renaissance, I guess we’ll see.

So much for my internal world; what of my engagement with external reality through the medium of this blog? Read our next post to find out…

Coronation musings

One day when I was in primary school, back in the mid-1970s, we were all loaded on to buses and taken to the cinema, which was a pretty big deal, since such extracurricular excitement was a rare event in those days. The film we saw was A Queen Is Crowned, the 1953 documentary of the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II. Presented in glorious Technicolor, and narrated by Laurence Olivier no less, it was quite a spectacle, and must have been even more impressive when it was first released to a nation only just emerging from postwar austerity. I’m not sure why we were taken to see it; the obvious reason would be the Silver Jubilee of 1977, but I’m fairly sure this trip was a couple of years before that. Anyway, whatever the occasion, Liz’s big day was clearly grand enough, even at second hand, that I can recall it nearly half a century later.

There has been plenty of comment over the last few weeks noting the contrast between the forward-looking, vibrant country which welcomed a modern young Queen, and the insular, sclerotic nation, obsessed with past glories, that her elderly son has inherited. There’s no doubt that the excitement that greeted Elizabeth’s ascension has not been replicated; popular reaction to today’s events has predominantly been one of indifference. Even staunch republicans like myself are mostly irritated rather than outraged, and we’re not complaining about the extra holiday on Monday.

The gloominess may be overstated though, and it is probably confined to observers of my generation, who are looking back on their lives with vague regret. Younger citizens, who still have a future ahead of them, see a Britain that, for all its troubles, is infinitely more diverse and socially progressive than it was in the 1950s. The fact that we are no longer psychologically in thrall to the monarchy is sign of how far the nation has come. We probably won’t have to wait 70 years for another coronation, but I’m sure that next time around it will be even more of a minority interest.

Oscar predictions 2023 revisited

So, confidence notwithstanding, my score was even worse than last year, with only my call for the Best Director Award proving correct. It seems that actually watching the nominated movies doesn’t improve my accuracy at all; perhaps next year I’ll save time by just reading the reviews.