VE Day 2025

The last few days have seen an extended commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2 in Europe, with street parties, military parades, and gala concerts. We’ve noted previously that, as the conflict has all but passed out of living memory, these acts of remembrance can seem to say more about the preoccupations of the present moment than the actual historical events, but the mood around the country this week has been generally somber and reflective. I guess that, with the world the way it is, it’s hardly surprising that the nation might wish to look back on a time when the Americans and the Russians were our allies in the fight to defeat fascism and build a new world.

Manchurian Trump

I wrote in a post last month that it would probably be some time before we could really make sense of the actions of the new US administration, but it turns out that I was wrong. It wasn’t hard to read the meaning of the Trump/Vance beatdown of Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, televised live from the Oval Office to a shocked world; we are now back in an era of Great Power politics, where nations have no permanent alliances, only permanent interests, and Emperor Trump will grant no favours to those who do not cower before him.

In such circumstances even a peacenik like me doesn’t need much convincing that rearmament is a sensible policy, though obviously I’d be in favour of paying for it by taxing the rich rather than cutting aid to the poor. Strengthening ties with more reliable allies like France and Germany seems like a no-brainer too.

One question that might have to wait for history to answer is whether Trump is an active agent of Vladimir Putin, or merely a useful idiot. Perhaps he was brainwashed during his infamous Moscow trip, then sent back to infiltrate the White House and do the Kremlin’s bidding, though it does seem more likely that Putin, like the rest of us, can scarcely believe that Trump has managed to con his way into power, but isn’t going to let a lucky break like that pass him by.

Longitudinal Trumpism

One of my favourite quotes is Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai’s 1972 comment “It’s too early to say”, uttered in reply to a question from Richard Nixon on the significance of the French Revolution. It has subsequently been reported that, due to a translation error, Zhou was under the impression that Nixon was referring to events in Paris in 1968 rather than 1789, so he wasn’t taking quite such a long-term view as had been thought, but still, I think that the general principle that one should hold off on making judgements until sufficient time has passed is essentially sound.

I’ve been thinking of this as I’ve watched the flurry of activity that has unfolded in Washington since Donald Trump’s second inauguration last month, every day bringing news of some fresh lunacy. Is it all part of a cunning strategy, a smokescreen to distract us from the real villainy? Or is the performative cruelty and transparent grifting actually as much of a plan as Trump and his acolytes have?

I guess time will tell, though, if I ignore my own advice against giving instant opinions, I would lean towards the view that they don’t have much of a blueprint beyond pushing the boundaries until someone makes them stop, or, failing that, until reality intrudes upon their fantasies.

I suspect it may be several years before we can really make sense of it all though – perhaps whoever is running China in 2225 will feel they have enough perspective to offer a verdict.

Trumpocalypse two

I have to admit that, around this point eight years ago, I was relatively relaxed about the prospect of Donald Trump ascending to the office of President of the United States. The fact that I was an old white guy living an ocean away helped of course, but I was also calmed by a residual faith in the essential immutability of government institutions; short of burning everything to the ground it is actually very difficult to effect significant change to the political landscape of an advanced society like the US or UK. This is usually immensely frustrating for those of us of a more progressive nature, but it is sometimes reassuring to know that not everything is lost just because the crazy people have temporarily taken charge.

Did my lack of concern turn out to be justified? I guess that I personally didn’t do too badly, but Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, hundreds of thousands of excess Covid deaths, and families separated at the border, were only a few of the reasons that those less privileged than I might beg to differ.

That said, the US government remained robust enough to see off the laughably incompetent coup attempt, and had Joe Biden directed his DoJ to be a bit more forceful in going after Trump for the many crimes he committed during his time in office then we might have seen the back of him. Alas, with typical liberal timidity, Joe let Donald off the hook, and now we are where we are.

I am thus somewhat less sanguine about how the next four years will work out, especially since the people Trump is recruiting suggests that his second administration will be a veritable carnival of reaction.

Are there any reasons to be hopeful? The fact that the congressional GOP couldn’t quite stomach Trump’s demand to shut down the government just before the holidays may be a sign that they won’t go along with all his insanity, though whether he will actually need their cooperation may well be a moot point. Putting obviously unqualified people in charge of big departments will make it easier for the career bureaucrats who know how everything works to maintain business as usual. And perhaps Trump himself will recall that being President is a pretty sweet gig, even with the checks and balances, and that wrecking the joint may be considerably more trouble than it is worth.

Or am I just whistling in the dark? Is this really the time that we go to hell in a handcart? I’m not quite ready to succumb to despair just yet; I’m still enough of a dialectical materialist to believe that human progress is a historical inevitability, and that any current difficulties are merely a bump in the road towards fully realised communism. I’ll stay as involved as I can in resisting the spread of Trumpism on these shores, and I’m sure it won’t be too long before my American comrades see it off as well.

Echoes of war

We’ve written about Operation Overlord twice before; once on the 70th anniversary, and again five years later. In both of those pieces we noted that the events of D-Day were moving from lived history into half-remembered mythology, but now we’ve reached the 80-year mark it’s all looking frighteningly contemporary.

The immediate reason for this is of course the fact that there is an active war grumbling on in the heart of Europe, not to mention the genocide unfolding in Palestine, and bloody conflicts in Sudan and Myanmar, all adding up to a scale of worldwide violence not seen since the 1940s. Even without the fighting, there would still be the unsettling feeling that civilisation is unravelling, with living standards declining, infrastructure crumbling, and fascism on the rise, much like the years leading up to WW2.

I’m comforting myself with the possibly delusional hope that the forthcoming election will also be a throwback to the middle of the twentieth century, and usher in a reforming government that will nationalise everything and rebuild the welfare state. I guess that in the darkest hours we have to stay focused on the promise of a new dawn.

Out of juice

The passing of OJ Simpson last week prompted a flurry of media reminiscence about his 1995 murder trial. The contrast between the 1990s, when the internet had yet to become a mass phenomenon, and our current social-media-saturated time is stark; back then the wall-to-wall TV coverage, with its lurid storyline and celebrity cast, was a novel experience, able to capture the attention of a worldwide audience for months on end, whereas today it seems likely that it would be just one more piece of transient clickbait.

I do remember following the case at the time, and not being particularly surprised when OJ was acquitted; the evidence certainly suggested that he was guilty, but the shambolic performance by the prosecution, along with the defence’s exposure of the racism and incompetence of the LAPD, was more than enough to give the jury grounds for reasonable doubt. He did end up in jail eventually, in circumstances that seemed very much like a fit-up, and lost a civil case to the victims’ families, but it’s difficult to say that justice was served.

It will be interesting to see if the trial due to start in Manhattan tomorrow will seize the public imagination in quite the same way. On the face of it it should, featuring as it does an ex-President of the United States, an actress best known for appearing in pornographic movies, and various shady financial dealings, but I wonder if we are now so inured to such tawdry spectacle that it will merge into the general air of decline that besets what remains of the ideal of liberal democracy.

Perhaps the real significance of the OJ trial was that it marked the beginning of the end for the concept that society could agree on a common set of facts and values, and that guilt or innocence could be determined by impartial examination of objective evidence. Now everything is seen through a partisan lens, and anything that contradicts our preconceived narrative is dismissed as fake news.

Of course I like to think that I am above such petty prejudice, so I’ll wait to see how the case pans out before I predict the verdict. Whatever happens, I doubt it will have a significant impact on the result in November, since I’m sure that nothing will be revealed about the defendant’s character that we didn’t already know.

New Hampshire 2024

This time four years ago we were surveying the field of Democrats vying to challenge President Trump in the fall; our pick was Bernie Sanders, so at least we spotted it would be an old white guy.

No such excitement in this cycle; any hope that the GOP contest might spark into life after the procession in Iowa was extinguished by Nikki Haley’s failure to enthuse a sufficient number of moderate Republicans to stall Trump’s progress, more or less guaranteeing a Biden-Trump rematch in November.

I’m not enough of a student of US politics to know the last time that both parties had their presidential candidates in place this early in an election year; probably something like the Polk-Clay showdown of 1844. I have mixed feelings about the prospect of a ten-month campaign; there are sure to be some entertaining moments, but it seems likely to get even uglier than the 2020 race, and a happy ending is far from assured. Still, I’ll try to follow it assiduously, and keep up a steady commentary; I’ll let you know if I start to doubt my forecast of a Biden victory…

Hawkeye Trump

To the great surprise of nobody, Donald Trump swept to victory in the Iowa caucuses, with Republican voters in the socially conservative state apparently willing to overlook his various legal entanglements. There is some suggestion that Nikki Haley may run him a little closer in more cosmopolitan New Hampshire, but to all intents and purposes the race seems to be over.

Interestingly, Iowa was apparently once thought of as a bastion of progress; it desegregated schools in 1868, and gave married women property rights in 1851. How times change.

The Biden camp seems to be welcoming the prospect of a rematch, on the basis that independents and moderate Republicans will turn away from Trump’s proto-fascism despite their misgivings about Biden’s handling of the economy. That makes sense I guess, so barring a Supreme Court intervention obliging the GOP to nominate a more sensible candidate, it’s looking like Uncle Joe might be good for another four years.

War in Palestine

I guess it’s a sign of how long I’ve been following world affairs that the current conflict in Palestine seems to me like a repeat of a horribly familiar story. There is no reason to believe that this round of bloodletting will end any differently from previous chapters; when the smoke clears and the bodies are buried there will be no resolution of the injustice suffered by Palestinians displaced in 1948, and consequently no hope of a lasting peace in the region.

One might think that, even if humanitarian concerns carried no weight, simple realpolitik would dictate that a ceasefire was in the interests of all parties. It is difficult to see what Israel has to gain from committing troops to a prolonged ground war without an obvious exit strategy, though perhaps easier to perceive how Benjamin Netanyahu might see an advantage to such a course of action as he tries to evade responsibility for the disastrous failure of his security policy.

When one does take the humanitarian situation into account, then the case for a ceasefire is unanswerable. It cannot be denied that those responsible for the atrocities committed during the Hamas incursion into southern Israel should be brought to account, but inflicting further suffering upon a trapped civilian population, in clear violation of international law, does not bring that goal any closer.

Is there any cause for optimism? There are some indications that Israel, perhaps under pressure from the US, is limiting the scale of its operation in Gaza to something less than a full occupation, which may not immediately make the situation better, but might avoid making it much worse. Qatar is reportedly negotiating a release of hostages, aid is trickling over the Egyptian border, and the UN Security Council is working on a resolution calling for a ceasefire. This may be just enough to steer the region away from catastrophe in the short term, but a durable solution will require a resumption of serious negotiation, and there is little sign that either side is willing or able to countenance the necessary compromises in the foreseeable future. When the guns do fall silent this time around it may not be for long.

The art of patience

I’m pretty sure it was Sun Tzu who wrote something to the effect of “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by”, and so it has proved, as some of our half-forgotten prophecies seem set to bear fruit; Twitter is heading for bankruptcy, crypto is in meltdown, and Donald Trump is going to jail.