Trump resurgent?

This time four years ago we were contemplating the question of whether the Trump administration would be viewed by posterity as a minor bump on the road of progress, or if his defeat in 2020 would prove to be only a temporary setback to the onward march of American fascism.

Well, now we know the answer, and it wasn’t even close, Trump comfortably winning the popular vote as well as the Electoral College, and the GOP coming out on top in the Senate, and perhaps also the House.

I must admit that, in the aftermath of January 2021, I thought it was all over for Trump personally, and that the movement he had sucessfully marshalled, for a while at least, would split, with relatively moderate elements returning to mainstream conservative politics, and the conspiracy-addled fringe fading into online insignificance. Instead the lunatics have only strengthened their control of the asylum, with the acquiescence and/or connivance of the GOP hierarchy.

And, it must be said, the result tells us something about the nature of society in the US. The electorate know all about Trump, and a majority of them like what they see; the virulent racism and toxic misogyny are a feature, not a bug.

Is this surprising, when one considers the whole span of the history of the USA, a nation founded on genocide and slavery, where legally-sanctioned racial discrimination was the norm within living memory? Was the advance of civil liberties in the latter half of the 20th century merely a blip, destined to be erased as the country reverts to type?

Perhaps I’m delusional, but I’m staying positive. Many obstacles can be put in Trump’s way, both personal and institutional, to frustrate the implementation of his reactionary agenda. The fight will be hard, but it’s not unwinnable.

Seriously? (Redux)

Regular readers will be aware that we’re not averse to a bit of nostalgia here at SLS, but I have to say that I wasn’t in any rush to relive 2016.

It will take me some time to process this turn of events; for now I can only repeat the question: America – WTF dudes?

My traditional message to my friends in the US of A

I don’t know for sure that this made the difference last time around, but why take a chance?

[Thanks once more to Matt Groening.]

Election prediction: 2024 US Presidential edition

We’ve established who we think should be the next President of the USA, but who do we think will win the prize?

I have to say that I have a bad feeling about this. The polling analysis at FiveThirtyEight, which I mostly trust, has Harris clearly ahead in the popular vote, but Trump just edging it in the Electoral College, though they do caution that it’s all within the margin of error.

The pessimistic view is that the polls are underestimating Trump’s support, due to sampling bias underweighting his rural base, and people being reluctant to admit, perhaps even to themselves, that they’re going to vote for the unstable fascist. This would be in line with what happened in 2016 and 2020, and, if true, would see Trump win fairly comfortably.

A more optimistic take would hold that, to the contrary, the polls are understating Harris’ chances. There are two reasons to believe this; firstly that the GOP has been pumping out figures that inflate Trump’s numbers to establish plausible grounds to dispute a Harris victory, and secondly that the pollsters are not picking up just how much white suburban women are recoiling from the toxic misogyny of the Trump/Vance ticket. The over-performance of Democrats in the 2022 midterms, and the success of constitutional amendments favouring reproductive autonomy, particularly in red states, give some weight to this argument.

This uncertainty prompted me to seek out some firsthand intelligence, but everyone I know in the US is a progressive resident of California, and while they are all lovely people, their opinions are not exactly a reliable insight into the mind of Middle America, so that wasn’t really much help.

All this leaves me telling myself that Harris will win, but not really believing it. “Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will” is what I used to say, but I think I’m getting too old for this kind of stress…

Vote Harris/Walz on November 5th

So, a little over a week to go before polling day, and I have written practically nothing about the US Presidential election campaign. My excuse is that there hasn’t really been a campaign to comment upon, in the sense of candidates offering policies to the electorate and vying to win over the undecided by articulating a positive vision. Rather we have been treated to the dispiriting spectacle of each party focusing on turning out their base, by painting a terrifying picture of the horrors that will ensue should the other side prevail, a process which has singularly failed to inspire me.

Of course blame for this state of affairs is not evenly shared; Kamala Harris started out trying to keep it classy, but, over the last month especially, as the polls have remained stubbornly tied even as Donald has dialled up the demagoguery, the Democrats have had little choice but to adopt a more negative tone, the logical endpoint of which will be pointing to a photo of Trump and Vance, and asking the American voter “These guys? Have you lost your fucking mind?”

I guess it’s another example of liberal reliance on reason failing to understand fascism’s appeal to emotion. Trump does not win over his MAGA acolytes with a rational plan to address their problems; he validates their grievances and offers fantastic solutions, that generally involve identifying some out-group for blame and victimisation. Attempting to refute Trump’s arguments by referencing reality is ineffective; people know, with varying degrees of consciousness, that stories of immigrants eating pets and the like are not true in a factual sense, but they fit with a worldview that comfortingly absolves the listener of responsibility for identifying, let alone rectifying, the actual causes of their discontent.

What is to be done? Well, if I knew that I would be a highly-paid political consultant, not a lowly blogger. At this stage trying to convert those voters already leaning Trumpwards looks like an impossible task; throwing everything at making sure the anti-Trump majority actually shows up at the voting booth seems as good a strategy as any.

So, boldly going where the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times fear to tread, I can announce that Second Life Shrink endorses Kamala Harris for the office of President of the United States of America. If you have a vote, for the love of everything that is decent, go out and use it.

Reversal of fortunes

What a difference a few weeks can make. This time last month the promise of competent, if unexciting, government courtesy of Keir Starmer meant I was cautiously optimistic about the immediate future of the UK; conversely, developments in the US, where Joe Biden’s faltering campaign seemed set to gift Donald Trump a second term in the White House, had left me feeling thoroughly bummed out.

Fast forward to today and the tables have been turned. The Democrats, having had the good sense to ditch Biden in favour of a balanced and inspiring Harris/Walz ticket, look well-placed to win in November, while on this side of the Atlantic we are coming to terms with the fact that we live in a country where fascist mobs can seemingly be conjured out of nowhere to riot in the streets and burn down migrant hostels.

I guess it’s probably not as bad, or as good, as it looks. The rioters, much like the January 6th would-be insurrectionists, will soon find out that fighting the state is not as consequence-free as posts on Telegram may have led them to believe, and retreat back to their alt-right internet swamps. Despite the excitement generated by the reset of the Democrat campaign, Trump is still the narrow favourite. I expect I’ll manage a few more posts on these topics before matters are settled.

Farewell Joe

Well, Joe Biden was evidently waiting to hear my opinion, as it was only a few minutes after our last post that he finally bowed to the inevitable, and graciously stepped out of the contest.

The contrast between this selfless act, putting the good of the nation before personal ambition, and Donald Trump’s desperate attempts to cling to power at all costs in 2021, couldn’t be clearer, and no doubt the Democrats will make this a central theme of their campaign. All they need to do is quickly settle on a candidate, surely Kamala Harris, and the race will very much be on again.