Contrasting fortunes

So, we’ve had four rounds of voting, a couple more debates, and Super Tuesday is almost upon us. Are things any clearer in the race for the White House?

On the Democratic side, it is looking as though Bernie Sanders’ wave of momentum has crashed upon the rocks of southern demographics, and it’s not clear how his campaign will recover. His narrow focus on economic issues may resonate with young white liberals, but the broader Democratic electorate seems more receptive to Hillary Clinton’s more nuanced message. This is a shame, because Bernie has the better platform, but he may have to be content with pulling Hillary a bit to the left. Hillary, even with her faults, is still a progressive and accomplished candidate, and there seems little doubt that the party will unite behind her if and when she secures the nomination.

As for the GOP, where does one start? The party establishment’s policy of pandering to wingnut Tea Partiers has come back to bite them on the ass, and it looks like they are going to be stuck with a candidate woefully unelectable, even by their own recent standards, who may drag the whole slate down to defeat.

The entire primary process has descended into embarrassing farce for the Republicans – while Bernie and Hillary debate their differences like serious, grown up politicians, the nation has watched Trump, Rubio and Cruz trade invective like overgrown toddlers. Little wonder that the GOP hierarchy are rumoured to have already written off the Presidency to focus on the Congressional contests.

Hanging over everything is the newly vacant seat on the Supreme Court, and the knowledge that the next President will have the chance to appoint a Justice who may swing the court for years to come. It will be interesting to see if the Republicans hold to their obstructionist line over the summer, or decide to try to make a deal with the current President rather than taking their chances with President Clinton.

Iowa revisited

Remarkably enough SLS has been around long enough to cover three US Presidential elections, so, on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, I feel obliged to issue some sort of forecast of the outcome.

Back in 2008 we were rooting for Hillary Clinton, not that our endorsement did her much good. This time round I have to say that, on policy, I’m leaning towards Bernie Sanders, who I think may win in Iowa and New Hampshire, though I can’t see past Clinton for the nomination.

On the Republican side it looks like Trump is going to make the early running, but I think Rubio will be the eventual candidate. The GOP race seems academic though, since I cannot imagine the Democrats losing the general election.

Whatever happens I’m hoping that the excitement of the caucuses and primaries will rekindle my enthusiasm for blogging, for a while at least.

Seriously though, don’t bomb Syria

As I write the debate in the House of Commons on the Syrian question is drawing to a close, and it looks like limited military action is going to be approved, though with a substantial bloc of opposition. To be fair, this outcome probably does represent the mood of the country; polls have shown a modest majority in support of bombing.

What’s interesting is that the doubters aren’t confined to usual left-leaning peaceniks; there are plenty of conservative voices questioning the wisdom of wading even further into a complex foreign conflict, with goals that are unclear and outcomes that are far from certain. Even on the left the opposition doesn’t stem entirely, or even mainly, from a pacifist outlook – pretty much everyone wants to see the back of ISIS – but rather from a conviction that the strategy proposed will only make things worse.

It would seem logical to wait until a better plan has been formulated, or at least to give less destructive options like diplomacy a bit more time to succeed. Unfortunately inaction isn’t an option our politicians feel comfortable embracing, which only reflects the anxiety prevalent in society at large; our inability to tolerate uncertainty and risk. Faced with a bad situation we want Something To Be Done, even if history tells us that it might be better to step back and let the belligerent parties sort things out themselves.

We in the West seem to think we have some special insight into conflict resolution, that we can engineer a solution that is beyond our erstwhile colonial subjects, but the evidence suggests that they would get along a lot better without our assistance, and the peace we bring is only the peace of the grave.

Don’t bomb Syria

It’s looking increasingly likely that British jets will soon be flying bombing sorties over Syria, a mission so senseless that even its proponents have largely avoided trying to make any coherent argument for it. We are invited to stand in solidarity with our French cousins, in the hope that our natural horror at the recent events in Paris will stop us asking awkward questions about why a strategy that so obviously failed in Iraq and Libya should be expected to work this time around.

It’s ironic that the almost unlimited access to information enjoyed by the digitally privileged of the developed world, which one might expect to arm citizens with the knowledge needed to stop this nonsense, appears rather to be paralyzing our critical faculties. The flood of text and images on various social media that invariably follows tragedies like Paris may feel intensely meaningful on a personal level, but, lacking wider context, it cannot guide a rational response. Instead it just seems to make us vulnerable to the fear-mongering of demagogues, of varying degrees of subtlety.

Perhaps I’m too pessimistic – there is plenty of opposition to this course of action, both online and in the real world, and our leaders’ drive towards a wider war may not yet be unstoppable, if we keep up the protests, and try to think about what is happening rather than just succumbing to a desire for instant reaction.

Underdogs have their day

No question about what was the big political story this weekend; Jeremy Corbyn’s triumph in the Labour leadership contest. That he would win hadn’t been in serious doubt for a while, but the margin of his victory was crushing, and has given him a clear mandate to reinvent the party along centre-left lines.

To some extent this is less surprising than it seems; in a European context the UK has been out of step over the last 20 years in having both main parties on the centre-right, and a leftward shift for Labour is really just a reversion to a longer-term status quo.

What is uncertain though is the effect that two decades of right-wing consensus has had on the outlook of the general electorate. The view among what can be broadly termed the political elite, which includes the newly-deposed Labour Party hierarchy, is that the ideas espoused by Corbyn and his allies, particularly on economic issues, may play well with existing Labour supporters, but leave the bulk of the population cold, rendering the party unelectable. The counter-argument is that there is a hidden majority in the country, currently alienated from mainstream politics, who have been waiting for someone like Corbyn to articulate a progressive agenda that they can support, and who will sweep a rejuvenated Labour to power. The last election produced some evidence for both positions; the SNP did well in Scotland by mobilising voters around a programme of limited social democracy, but the Conservatives did win overall with an unrepentant pro-austerity manifesto.

Time will tell I guess. The first electoral test for Corbyn’s Labour will be the Scottish Parliament poll next year, assuming they make it that far without splitting, but that campaign will be beset by all sorts of local issues, so it may be hard to draw many firm conclusions from the outcome. The local elections in England and Wales might be a better indicator of how far the Corbyn revolution can extend.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, there are signs that Bernie Sanders may be poised to pull off a similar upset. That seems like more of a long shot though, so I’m sticking with my prediction of Hillary Clinton for the nomination. Still, it’s looking more interesting than it did a few months ago. The real entertainment is in the Republican contest of course, but I can’t see that being more than a sideshow.