(In)decision time

I’ve been sticking by my prediction that Senator Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, though for the last couple of weeks that has been based more on faith than reason. The results in Texas and Ohio are positive, and it does look like Hillary will pick up momentum in the next month or so, and probably win the last big state to vote, Pennsylvania, but it’s clear that this race is going to go all the way to the convention.

The Florida and Michigan delegates have become a big issue – I can’t see how the party could maintain the position of excluding them when the contest is this close, but Obama supporters could legitimately cry foul if they are seated, since Hillary ran more or less unopposed in both states. Still, plenty of people were predicting that these delegations were going to end up being crucial, so Obama has only himself to blame for his no-show.

Even if the Florida and Michigan delegates count, it is probably still going to come down to the superdelegates. Just following the popular vote, or siding with the delegate leader, would be a cop-out. They have to take responsibility, and ask themselves this question: who can beat McCain?

It would be easy to think that Bush has made any GOP candidate unelectable, but that is over-optimistic. The Democratic nominee is going to have to be able to stand up to the worst the right-wing noise machine can generate. Hillary has been under fire from Republicans for the last 16 years and is still fighting, and winning in the big states. Obama has had an easy ride so far – maybe he’ll be able to take the flak, maybe he won’t. Is that a chance worth taking?