Predictably unpredictable

After months of anticipation the UK General Election is finally upon us. All the pundits are saying it’s the most unpredictable contest since, well, the last one, but I feel I should hazard some sort of forecast.

So, based on an entirely unscientific reading of a few highly selected news feeds, I’m going to say… no, it is too hard to call at the moment. The broad outline of the debate seems clear – it’s going to be won and lost on the economy – but there are enough confounding factors to leave the likely outcome frustratingly obscure. How much will the Liberal vote collapse, and where will it go? Will UKIP supporters return to the Tory fold? Will Labour do as badly in Scotland as the polls seem to suggest?

I guess things may become clearer over the next few weeks, and I will get round to making a prediction before polling day. In the meantime I’ll try to keep up some sort of commentary on developments, which might help focus my own thoughts on the matter, if nothing else.

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