The dust has settled after the opening Presidential debate, and the consensus among the pundits seems to be that, in the battle between the know-all and the Know-Nothing, Hillary came out clearly on top.

The Clinton camp’s tactics were spot on; burnish their candidate’s credentials as a competent, if slightly dull, technocrat, while gently goading Trump into damning himself in the eyes of undecided voters (particularly women) by exploiting his almost Pavlovian inability to resist responding to criticism, or even contradiction, with bigoted invective.

Trump, meanwhile, appears to be calculating that the demographic he already has locked down – angry white guys essentially – will be enough to carry him over the winning line. That’s optimistic; even if he can motivate his base to turn out in big numbers, the list of groups he has insulted, belittled, threatened, or otherwise pissed-off is extensive, and they’ll be queuing up to vote against him.

I’ve no doubt that there will be more twists in this story between now and November, but I’m sticking to my prediction; Hillary will win.

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