No third chance

Over the weekend the notion that Theresa May’s Brexit deal would rise from the dead began to move from completely unthinkable to just about imaginable, as the DUP started to hint that they could perhaps live with the Irish backstop, and Tory hold-outs suggested they would follow suit. The excuse for this volte-face was the proposition that article 62 of the Vienna Convention would allow the UK to unilaterally extricate itself from the backstop; actual experts in international law dismissed this as a fairytale, but it looked like it would be enough of a convenient fiction to provide cover for the Brexiteers’ retreat from their supposedly unshakable principles.

However this glimmer of hope for our beleaguered premier was extinguished today, with the news that Commons Speaker John Bercow was minded to rule out a third vote on the plan, on the grounds that repeatedly presenting the same defeated motion contravenes long-established parliamentary convention. This should have been blindingly obvious to the government, but they seem to have assumed that, since all other precedents were being torn up, this one could be ignored too.

This seems to leave May with no choice but to request a long extension of article 50, which presumably the EU will only grant if she promises that the time will be used for a general election, or another referendum. Alternatively she could just ignore last week’s vote against no-deal and plough on with it regardless, but that seems bloody-minded, even for her. We may yet look back on today as the point at which the tide definitively turned against Brexit.

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