Trump and tribulation

As expected, after the excitement of the election, politics around here has pretty much gone into hibernation, and is unlikely to become interesting again until efforts to negotiate an EU trade deal get started next month, when we’ll find out whether Boris Johnson actually has some sort of plan, or if we’re going to be back into another period of no-deal brinkmanship.

In the meantime we must turn for amusement to the US, where the Senate trial of Donald Trump for a small sample of his many high crimes and misdemeanors is finally getting under way. While the short-term outcome may not be in much doubt, since most Republican Senators have already declared themselves ready to acquit without burdening their minds with consideration of the evidence, it will be interesting to see what effect the demonstration of Trump’s rampant criminality has on his public standing, and his chances of re-election.

I suspect that the answer to that question will be “not much”. People already know what they think about Trump, and confirmation that he is a crook seems unlikely to make much impression on his core support. If he can sit back and let it wash over him, the process might even work to his advantage, by fuelling the narrative that he is the victim of the liberal elite, persecuted for the “crime” of standing up for the little guy.

The main danger that Trump faces is from himself; it’s possible that he will allow the impeachment to goad him into some action so outrageous that it tests the loyalty of even his most ardent supporters. It’s hard to imagine what would be bad enough to do that though; perhaps cancelling the election and declaring himself dictator-for-life. Failing that, this trial may turn out to be just a minor inconvenience on his march to another term in office.