World Series 2025 prediction update

October 22, 2025 by Leave a comment

On the face of it my World Series forecast is currently showing 50% accuracy, but I’d point out that I got the American League side of the bracket completely right, and I spotted that the Dodgers would have some trouble getting past the Phillies, so I think I can claim something more like 75%.

Anyway I need to revise my pick for the Championship. If one believes the LA press it’s looking more like a coronation than a contest, but I wouldn’t be much of a Giants fan if I backed the Dodgers, and the Blue Jays do have home field advantage, so I’m going with Toronto in seven games.

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Thoughts on the Gaza ceasefire

October 12, 2025 by Leave a comment

Such is the state of the world at the moment it’s hardly surprising there is a general feeling of relief at the cessation of hostilities in Gaza, and an equally general reluctance to think too deeply about the details. I am certainly in the camp of those who are willing to let hope triumph over experience, even if it means ignoring the evidence that the Israeli government is already looking for a pretext to resume its murderous offensive.

That said, the idea that this pause in the violence may persist is not entirely irrational; Donald Trump has staked enough of his personal prestige on the success of the deal to ensure that he will lean on Benjamin Netanyahu to make it work, and Netanyahu himself may calculate that delivering even temporary peace will win enough public support to allow him to ditch the more belligerent members of his current coalition.

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic too though; this deal does nothing to address the underlying issue of the occupation, and the denial of Palestinian national rights, nor does it suggest that anyone will be held to account for the campaign of genocide endured by the civilian population of Gaza over the last two years. These are not minor details, and leaving them unresolved is yet another example of the catastrophic failure of diplomacy that has plagued the region over too many years.

Is there a solution to this seemingly intractable problem? Some sort of UN authority to enforce the ceasefire and set out a roadmap to Palestinian statehood would seem to be required, but agreement to such a body is unlikely in the current context of fractured international relations. The EU may step up to give a diplomatic lead, or perhaps the promise of a Nobel prize will persuade Trump to throw US weight behind the plan; failing such unlikely developments we may see a resumption of conflict even sooner than we fear.

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World Series 2025 prediction

October 4, 2025 by Leave a comment

Although I have some fond memories associated with attending baseball games, I had, until this year, experienced the actual matches as a little dull. That changed over the summer though, as I found myself rather obsessively following the fortunes of the San Francisco Giants, aided by the discovery that I could stream live commentary of their games, courtesy of Northern California sports station KNBR. Radio seems like the perfect medium for baseball; one can selectively tune in to the moments when something is happening, and get on with another activity during the quieter spells.

Even paying partial attention I was able to pick up on much more of the dynamics of the sport, and develop an appreciation of the nuances of which I had been hitherto unaware, and as the months rolled by I began to feel more invested in the results, and to have increasingly strong opinions on starting pitchers, situational hitting, and the like.

Of course living several time zones away meant that I mainly listened to the Giants’ east coast fixtures, or afternoon matches at Oracle Park, though I did stay up all night a few times to follow games that seemed particularly important, and I always checked the other scores first thing in the morning. I was rewarded with quite the rollercoaster of emotion; a bright start, a prolonged skid after the All-Star break, a disappointing trade deadline, a late rally that briefly promised a playoff berth before running out of gas as September drew to a close, all culminating in a decidedly mediocre .500 regular season record.

Anyway, now that I can at least affect to understand terms like ERA and SLG, I feel I should offer a postseason forecast.

In the National League, the Dodgers look strongest on offence and starting pitching, but their bullpen is shaky, so I think they might struggle to get past the Phillies. In the other half of the draw I fancy the Brewers over the Cubs, but I can’t see either of them winning the NLCS

I paid a bit less attention to the American League over the regular season, so this prediction is more tentative, but I think the ALCS will be between the Blue Jays and the Mariners, with the former coming out on top.

So, Phillies and Blue Jays for the World Series. And the winner? Philadelphia.

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