Making it in Makerfield

Depending on the narrative you prefer to believe, tomorrow will mark either the start of a national renaissance, as PM-in-waiting Andy Burnham takes his first step towards Number 10, or the beginning of yet another spell of political chaos, after the carefully-laid plans of the Westminster elite are disrupted by a victory for the insurgents of Reform.

Informed opinion seems to favour the former scenario, on the grounds that progressive voters are likely to coalesce around Burnham, with the right split between Reform and Restore. It sounds plausible I guess, though “plausible” has hardly been a reliable guide to the political landscape around here in recent years.

My main anxiety stems from the assumption that the presence of Restore on the ballot will hurt Reform; to me it seems equally if not more likely that Farage’s outfit will benefit from a detoxifying effect, as closet racists reassure themselves that at least they’re not supporting the overt Nazis.

Even if the nightmare of a Reform win doesn’t unfold, Burnham’s path to the premiership is hardly obstacle-free, and there isn’t actually a huge amount of evidence that he would be any more up to the job of rectifying the nation’s woes than the current incumbent.

Perhaps I’m being too gloomy; even a small nudge in the direction of social democracy would be welcome in these times, and might be enough to take the wind out of the sails of those forces who want to roll back the hard-won victories of the last century. As ever, when the way ahead seems difficult, it pays to take the long view.