Gorton and Denton prediction

I’d taken a break from thinking too much about politics over the last month or so, mainly because I had been finding developments on both sides of the Atlantic a bit of a downer. The rest seems to have done me some good, and I’m beginning to feel more optimistic again, to the extent that I’m willing to risk forecasting the result of tomorrow’s by-election in the hitherto safe Labour seat on the edge of Manchester.

I think it will be… Green, Labour, Reform.

What that will mean for wider British politics is a much bigger question of course. Will Labour jettison Keir Starmer in the hope of avoiding a complete rout in the regional elections in May? Will the Greens be able to translate a local triumph into national momentum? Will the wheels start to come off for Reform?

My short answers are No, Maybe, Yes, but I guess we should wait to see the actual result before we get too deep into the post-mortem…

Welcome to 2026

I often bemoan my inability to produce posts on any sort of regular schedule, but my indolence does have at least one positive aspect; I’m slightly less likely to publish poorly-considered analysis that soon turns out to be laughably inaccurate.

This week is a case in point. I was all set to pen a piece looking forward to 2026, specifically anticipated developments in US politics, in which I intended to strike a broadly optimistic tone. My reasoning was thus; with mid-term elections looming, and thoughts turning to the post-Trump succession, the relatively sensible figures in the administration, like Vance and Rubio, whose support for the President was always more opportunistic than ideological, would make some effort to rein in the insanity, if only to ensure that the US would still be a functioning nation when their turn to run it came around.

One week in, and that prediction is already faring poorly, to put it mildly. Trump, or at least those who are influencing his increasingly bewildered mind, has doubled down on the madness, launching reckless neo-imperialist adventures, picking fights with close allies, unleashing goons to terrorise the citizenry, and topping it off with a declaration that he recognises no morality other than his own desire.

Accordingly, my mood has shifted from cautious positivity to a deep gloom; there is no way this will end well. Trump cannot be planning to allow free elections to go ahead in November. The only question is whether he will try to maintain a facade of legitimacy by rigging them, or just go full out and suspend the constitution altogether. Either way, significant turmoil seems guaranteed.

On the other hand, perhaps I’m just getting too caught up in mid-winter paranoia. The resistance of ordinary citizens is growing by the day, and this will surely turn the political tide. Even if the Democrats can’t convert that into electoral success, Republican support for Trump is beginning to waver too. Tipping the US into full-blown fascism would be extremely bad for business, and there is no particularly pressing reason to do it, so one might expect that at some point the GOP hierarchy will remember that their primary purpose is to promote the interests of American capitalism, and pull the plug.

I guess I’m just about convincing myself to stick with my original hopeful outlook, despite the evidence. We’ll find out soon enough if that is rational or delusional…

Go Zohran!

Encouraging news from across the Atlantic; the good citizens of New York seem set to elect a communist as their new Mayor.

Of course Zohran Mamdani is a “communist” only in Republican fever dreams; in Europe he’d be regarded as a moderately-left social democrat. Still, rent-control, subsidised groceries, affordable childcare, and free buses are not to be sniffed at, especially in these difficult times, so here’s hoping his victory is even more decisive than forecast.

Thoughts on the Gaza ceasefire

Such is the state of the world at the moment it’s hardly surprising there is a general feeling of relief at the cessation of hostilities in Gaza, and an equally general reluctance to think too deeply about the details. I am certainly in the camp of those who are willing to let hope triumph over experience, even if it means ignoring the evidence that the Israeli government is already looking for a pretext to resume its murderous offensive.

That said, the idea that this pause in the violence may persist is not entirely irrational; Donald Trump has staked enough of his personal prestige on the success of the deal to ensure that he will lean on Benjamin Netanyahu to make it work, and Netanyahu himself may calculate that delivering even temporary peace will win enough public support to allow him to ditch the more belligerent members of his current coalition.

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic too though; this deal does nothing to address the underlying issue of the occupation, and the denial of Palestinian national rights, nor does it suggest that anyone will be held to account for the campaign of genocide endured by the civilian population of Gaza over the last two years. These are not minor details, and leaving them unresolved is yet another example of the catastrophic failure of diplomacy that has plagued the region over too many years.

Is there a solution to this seemingly intractable problem? Some sort of UN authority to enforce the ceasefire and set out a roadmap to Palestinian statehood would seem to be required, but agreement to such a body is unlikely in the current context of fractured international relations. The EU may step up to give a diplomatic lead, or perhaps the promise of a Nobel prize will persuade Trump to throw US weight behind the plan; failing such unlikely developments we may see a resumption of conflict even sooner than we fear.

Trump on parade

I guess it’s an sign we are living through interesting times that the spectacle of the President of the United States of America cosplaying as a military dictator is only the third or fourth most alarming thing to have appeared in the news over the last week.