Election reaction 2024

I may be half a continent away, and somewhat irked by my disenfranchisement, but I still experienced a moment of uncomplicated joy when I awoke this morning to the news that the Tories had not just lost the election, but been thoroughly humiliated in the process, fitting reward for their years of misgovernance.

Only a moment though; some contend that the Labour victory represents the rebirth of sensible social democracy, but I’m not convinced, and even if it does it is far from certain that such a programme would be equal to the challenges facing the nation.

There will be time to worry about that in the future I guess; for now we should enjoy the discomfiture of our erstwhile rulers, and celebrate even a small step towards a better tomorrow.

Election dissatisfaction

As readers may have surmised from the paucity of posts on the topic, I have not been wildly enthused by the ongoing UK election, as the Tories shambolic campaign has underperformed already rock-bottom expectations, and Labour have remained laser-focused on one simple but uninspiring pledge; that they will be exactly like the Conservatives, but competent.

Actually, that’s probably unfair on Labour; they do have some vaguely progressive policies, and while the opinion polls suggest that Keir Starmer could propose the establishment of a workers’ republic and still win handily, such is the country’s desire for change, it’s understandable that party strategists might be fretting that wavering Tory voters may rediscover their loyalty in the privacy of the voting booth.

All that said, I had been looking forward to casting a vote, probably for the Greens, since I actually know their local candidate personally, and I’m not inclined to break the habit of a lifetime by supporting anyone who has a chance of winning, but I’m not going to have that opportunity alas, since I’m out of the country for the next 10 days. I did apply for a postal vote as soon as the election date was announced, but, with the inefficiency that seems to characterise every part of the state these days, our local election board didn’t get around to issuing the papers until after my departure.

Looking abroad doesn’t engender much more optimism in the future of democracy. France goes to the polls tomorrow with the far right tipped to do well, and Democrats in US are experiencing a collective panic attack following Joe Biden’s less-than-stellar performance in the first Presidential debate.

I guess it’s always possible that these setbacks will galvanise the left, but that’s what we’ve been telling ourselves for the best part of two decades now, so I’m finding it hard to keep the hope alive…

Echoes of war

We’ve written about Operation Overlord twice before; once on the 70th anniversary, and again five years later. In both of those pieces we noted that the events of D-Day were moving from lived history into half-remembered mythology, but now we’ve reached the 80-year mark it’s all looking frighteningly contemporary.

The immediate reason for this is of course the fact that there is an active war grumbling on in the heart of Europe, not to mention the genocide unfolding in Palestine, and bloody conflicts in Sudan and Myanmar, all adding up to a scale of worldwide violence not seen since the 1940s. Even without the fighting, there would still be the unsettling feeling that civilisation is unravelling, with living standards declining, infrastructure crumbling, and fascism on the rise, much like the years leading up to WW2.

I’m comforting myself with the possibly delusional hope that the forthcoming election will also be a throwback to the middle of the twentieth century, and usher in a reforming government that will nationalise everything and rebuild the welfare state. I guess that in the darkest hours we have to stay focused on the promise of a new dawn.

Trump guilty as charged

Well, as I predicted, the jury didn’t take too long to find Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts, not a particularly surprising outcome given the weight of evidence against him.

No doubt he and his supporters will try to spin this as a Biden-inspired fit-up, but the clear fact is that he has been convicted by a jury of ordinary citizens, after a demonstrably fair trial, which, we can only hope, may finally start to turn mainstream opinion decisively against him.

Trump on trial

Prosecution and defence have wrapped up their final submissions to the jury, and the outcome of Donald Trump’s hush-money trial, and perhaps the fate of the free world, now hangs on the decision of twelve New Yorkers.

The proceedings, while not as exciting as the OJ Simpson trial back in the 90s, have been quietly gripping in their own way. The prosecution methodically laid out their case, backing it up with reams of documentation, compelling testimony from Stormy Daniels, and some rather less convincing testimony from Michael Cohen. The defence made only a token effort to refute any of the actual facts; rather their strategy was based on tacitly admitting that, sure, he may have done these things, but what of it? Is it a crime for a married man to try to bury the embarrassing story of that time he fucked a porn star? If he tasked Cohen with the job of making the actual payments, well, isn’t Cohen a lawyer, so can’t that be recorded as a legal expense?

It’s a superficially plausible argument, but the fatal flaw is the denial that the cover-up was primarily related to the election, and thus that the money spent on it didn’t need to be declared as a campaign contribution. This is obviously preposterous, and I can’t imagine that any member of the jury will believe it.

I don’t think the deliberations will take very long, so we should have a verdict soon, perhaps by the end of the week. My prediction? Trump will be convicted. What will that mean for the election in November? I don’t know. In a sane world it would sink him, but the world we find ourselves living in is some way from being sane, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see…

General Election 2024

In a somewhat unexpected development my prediction of a summer election has turned out to be spot on. The general consensus among political commentators had been that Rishi Sunak would hold off going to the country until at least November, in the hope that the economy might have picked up enough by then to underwrite some crowd-pleasing tax cuts, but he has opted to gamble on a snap poll in July instead. This rather suggests that he believes that the state of the country in two months will be bad enough to render him even less electable than he is now, if such a thing is possible, which is not a particularly reassuring message.

So we can look forward to six weeks or so of what is likely to be a deeply unpleasant campaign, as the Tories fall back on the blend of xenophobia and culture-war fear-mongering that is their only hope of distracting the electorate from their actual record in government. In theory, all Labour will have to do is stay quiet and look competent, which I’m sure they have the discipline for, so I can’t see the final outcome being anything other than a change of regime, which will be relief after all the nonsense of the last few years.

Out of juice

The passing of OJ Simpson last week prompted a flurry of media reminiscence about his 1995 murder trial. The contrast between the 1990s, when the internet had yet to become a mass phenomenon, and our current social-media-saturated time is stark; back then the wall-to-wall TV coverage, with its lurid storyline and celebrity cast, was a novel experience, able to capture the attention of a worldwide audience for months on end, whereas today it seems likely that it would be just one more piece of transient clickbait.

I do remember following the case at the time, and not being particularly surprised when OJ was acquitted; the evidence certainly suggested that he was guilty, but the shambolic performance by the prosecution, along with the defence’s exposure of the racism and incompetence of the LAPD, was more than enough to give the jury grounds for reasonable doubt. He did end up in jail eventually, in circumstances that seemed very much like a fit-up, and lost a civil case to the victims’ families, but it’s difficult to say that justice was served.

It will be interesting to see if the trial due to start in Manhattan tomorrow will seize the public imagination in quite the same way. On the face of it it should, featuring as it does an ex-President of the United States, an actress best known for appearing in pornographic movies, and various shady financial dealings, but I wonder if we are now so inured to such tawdry spectacle that it will merge into the general air of decline that besets what remains of the ideal of liberal democracy.

Perhaps the real significance of the OJ trial was that it marked the beginning of the end for the concept that society could agree on a common set of facts and values, and that guilt or innocence could be determined by impartial examination of objective evidence. Now everything is seen through a partisan lens, and anything that contradicts our preconceived narrative is dismissed as fake news.

Of course I like to think that I am above such petty prejudice, so I’ll wait to see how the case pans out before I predict the verdict. Whatever happens, I doubt it will have a significant impact on the result in November, since I’m sure that nothing will be revealed about the defendant’s character that we didn’t already know.

Supreme Tuesday

I’ve been writing this blog for long enough to have covered four previous US Presidential campaigns, and while the 2024 edition of the contest is arguably the one with the highest stakes, it is also by some way the least intriguing.

Back in 2008, Super Tuesday saw the Democratic primary still finely balanced between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton; 2012 was a bit less interesting, since even in March it was obvious that whoever ended up as the GOP nominee would have no chance in November, but the squabbling among the candidates was amusing; in 2016 the Republican race was wide open, though Trump had put his stamp upon it; and in 2020 progressives were split on whether to go with leftist Bernie or centrist Joe.

This time around though there is no suspense at all; it’s going to be Biden versus Trump. There was a slight hope that the Supreme Court might inject some excitement into the matter by barring Trump from the ballot, but, predictably enough, they dodged the opportunity to get involved, and let him off on a technicality.

So the fate of the free world will be entrusted to one of two old white guys. What could go wrong?

Superbowl LVIII preview

Just a few hours to go before we discover if my confident prediction that San Francisco would prevail in Las Vegas will be borne out, or whether the curse of SLS will doom another hot favourite to ignominious failure.

The 49ers faltering performances in the playoff rounds had given me some doubts, but I had more or less convinced myself that they had enough to overcome Kansas City, until I read about the Deep State plot to ensure that Travis Kelce’s team come out on top, in order to boost the profile of the obscure singer-songwriter he is currently dating, which will apparently help Joe Biden get re-elected. I guess if it keeps Trump out then it’s a price worth paying.

In other Trump-related news, my forecast that the Supreme Court would body swerve the question of the ex-president’s eligibility, or lack of it, under the 14th Amendment seems set to be confirmed, as oral arguments in the case revealed that just about all the Justices wanted nothing to do with such a potentially explosive decision. So, assuming that both of the elderly gentlemen make it to November, it looks like the Biden-Trump rematch is very much on.

New Hampshire 2024

This time four years ago we were surveying the field of Democrats vying to challenge President Trump in the fall; our pick was Bernie Sanders, so at least we spotted it would be an old white guy.

No such excitement in this cycle; any hope that the GOP contest might spark into life after the procession in Iowa was extinguished by Nikki Haley’s failure to enthuse a sufficient number of moderate Republicans to stall Trump’s progress, more or less guaranteeing a Biden-Trump rematch in November.

I’m not enough of a student of US politics to know the last time that both parties had their presidential candidates in place this early in an election year; probably something like the Polk-Clay showdown of 1844. I have mixed feelings about the prospect of a ten-month campaign; there are sure to be some entertaining moments, but it seems likely to get even uglier than the 2020 race, and a happy ending is far from assured. Still, I’ll try to follow it assiduously, and keep up a steady commentary; I’ll let you know if I start to doubt my forecast of a Biden victory…