Retrumped

August 31, 2023 by Leave a comment

Looking through our extensive archive, I see that our first mention of Donald Trump came back in 2007, in a post about the Second Life real estate market, where he is referenced in his capacity as an archetypal successful tycoon, though even at that time there was a cartoonish element to his public persona.

Trump next turns up in late summer 2015, when we note in passing that his popularity is rising. Into 2016, and his name features more frequently, as we first dismiss the possibility that he will be the Republican nominee, then assure readers that he has no chance of capturing the Presidency.

(In defence of that latter prediction I would point out that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, which in any normal country would have given her the job, but we reckoned without the vagaries of the Electoral College).

Unsurprisingly, the antics of the Executive Branch provided material for plenty of posts over the next four years, culminating in the tragicomedy of the Capitol riot.

I’ll admit that at that point I thought Trump would cut his losses and retire to the lucrative lecture circuit, a career move which would probably have kept him out of jail, since, notwithstanding high-minded rhetoric about nobody being above the law, the US doesn’t really see itself as the sort of country where you can be locked up for losing an election. However, for whatever reason, he’s decided to run again, exposing himself to legal peril, and pitching us into a rerun of the GOP primary of eight years ago, but this time without the laughs.

Where will it all end? My track record of forecasts on this topic is obviously abysmal, but I’ll hazard a guess that Trump will be the Republican candidate in 2024, and that Joe Biden will beat him again. His various trials will be postponed until after polling day, but his misdeeds will eventually catch up with him.

Will Trump attempt another coup when it becomes obvious he has no chance of a legitimate win? He may, but if it’s anything like the laughably amateur affair detailed in the Georgia indictment, then it seems very unlikely he will succeed, and the heavy sentences being handed down to the would-be insurrectionists of January ‘21 will deter all but the most deluded of his followers from joining in.

That’s how I see things today anyhow; my opinion is subject to change as events unfold. If nothing else, the renewed Trump Show should inspire me to post a little more frequently over the next few months, which may not entirely make up for the chaos he could unleash, but will at least keep me amused.

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July daze redux

July 30, 2023 by Leave a comment

If I wanted to excuse the infrequent nature of my posts since the start of the year by claiming that I’ve been paralysed by existential anxiety, I wouldn’t have to look too hard to find plausible reasons for despair; take your pick from accelerating climate breakdown, attritional wars on multiple continents, the predicted rise of killer AI, unaccountable oligarchs hoarding wealth while the young slide into financial precarity, the resurgence of Donald Trump, rumoured extraterrestrial incursions, general government mendacity and incompetence… and that’s just this week’s news.

In truth though, I’ve been largely silent for almost exactly the opposite reason; the last few months have found me in a state of unfocused contentment, which hasn’t exactly been unpleasant, but has left me with a nagging feeling that I should have some stronger opinions about what’s going on, and should be taking every opportunity to share them.

There’s only so much angst anyone can take though, and I reckon I’ve done my share of agitation over the years, so I’m going to forgive myself for lapsing into a period of blissful denial, until the end of the summer at least. Assuming that ever comes…

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Midsummer musing

June 22, 2023 by Leave a comment

So here we are at the longest day, which seems like a good point to take stock of the year so far, and anticipate developments in the months ahead.

Or it would be, if this blog was anything other than moribund. Since the start of the year I’ve mentally composed multiple posts, but the few I’ve gotten around to actually writing have been somewhat underwhelming.

I had a vague idea about shaming myself into productive activity by listing a few of the sort of topics that anyone claiming to be an engaged member of society should really be able to formulate an opinion on, with the expectation that I would compose something about them in the not too distant future, but when I actually wrote them down – artificial intelligence, the war in Ukraine, UFOs, UK politics, US politics – it looked rather obvious and dull. An alternative strategy – spontaneously reacting to whatever is in the news – has led to some of our best pieces in the past, but feels like it would require more energy and enthusiasm than I can muster at the moment.

So I don’t know. I guess these things go in cycles, though of late the intensely creative periods seem to have been getting rarer, if indeed they ever existed at all. Still, life is always a matter of hope triumphing over experience, so I’ll press on…

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Coronation musings

May 6, 2023 by Leave a comment

One day when I was in primary school, back in the mid-1970s, we were all loaded on to buses and taken to the cinema, which was a pretty big deal, since such extracurricular excitement was a rare event in those days. The film we saw was A Queen Is Crowned, the 1953 documentary of the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II. Presented in glorious Technicolor, and narrated by Laurence Olivier no less, it was quite a spectacle, and must have been even more impressive when it was first released to a nation only just emerging from postwar austerity. I’m not sure why we were taken to see it; the obvious reason would be the Silver Jubilee of 1977, but I’m fairly sure this trip was a couple of years before that. Anyway, whatever the occasion, Liz’s big day was clearly grand enough, even at second hand, that I can recall it nearly half a century later.

There has been plenty of comment over the last few weeks noting the contrast between the forward-looking, vibrant country which welcomed a modern young Queen, and the insular, sclerotic nation, obsessed with past glories, that her elderly son has inherited. There’s no doubt that the excitement that greeted Elizabeth’s ascension has not been replicated; popular reaction to today’s events has predominantly been one of indifference. Even staunch republicans like myself are mostly irritated rather than outraged, and we’re not complaining about the extra holiday on Monday.

The gloominess may be overstated though, and it is probably confined to observers of my generation, who are looking back on their lives with vague regret. Younger citizens, who still have a future ahead of them, see a Britain that, for all its troubles, is infinitely more diverse and socially progressive than it was in the 1950s. The fact that we are no longer psychologically in thrall to the monarchy is sign of how far the nation has come. We probably won’t have to wait 70 years for another coronation, but I’m sure that next time around it will be even more of a minority interest.

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Fore too owe

April 20, 2023 by Leave a comment

Despite good intentions, my posting frequency has fallen off a cliff since the start of the year. There are multiple reasons for this, not least of which is a renewed appreciation of el primo cheeba cheeba, a legacy of my trip to California last summer.

There was a time when getting baked inspired my creativity; now I’m older it just sends me into a groove of contented passivity. Which isn’t unpleasant, but it does leave me with a feeling that I could be spending my remaining days a little more productively. Perhaps I should resolve to have a straight-edge summer this year. Starting tomorrow…

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Arresting developments

April 2, 2023 by Leave a comment

If I had been together enough back in January to come up with a list of predictions for the year ahead, I’m pretty sure that “Donald Trump gets arrested” would have been on it somewhere, but I have to admit that I wouldn’t have guessed that the first charges he’d be facing would be in connection with the Stormy Daniels affair.

Conspiracy theories alleging that the case is some sort of political witch-hunt are rather undermined by the fact that, of the various legal perils facing Trump, this is by far the least likely to damage his standing amongst his hardcore support; clandestinely paying off an adult film star to cover up an alleged liaison is so on-brand that it will probably enhance his appeal to the MAGA faithful.

If anything, the indictment is a gift to Trump; it forces his potential rivals within the GOP to spring to his defence, and more or less nails him on as the candidate for 2024, while not really affecting his appeal to the general electorate, since the facts of the case are already widely known, and priced in to public opinion.

So if the shadowy deep-state conspirators really want to prevent Trump returning to the White House, they’re going to have to up their game a bit. Unless their plan is to make sure that he cruises through the Republican primaries, on the assumption that he will crash and burn in the general election. Because that strategy worked so well in 2016…

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Oscar predictions 2023 revisited

March 13, 2023 by Leave a comment

So, confidence notwithstanding, my score was even worse than last year, with only my call for the Best Director Award proving correct. It seems that actually watching the nominated movies doesn’t improve my accuracy at all; perhaps next year I’ll save time by just reading the reviews.

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Oscar predictions 2023

March 11, 2023 by Leave a comment

I’ve actually seen a few of the movies tipped for Academy Award success this year, and read about most of the others, so I’m moderately confident that my forecast may be a little more accurate than it was last year; I guess we’ll see tomorrow.

Anyway, here are my picks for the main categories:

  • Best Actor – Austin Butler
  • Best Actress – Cate Blanchett
  • Best Supporting Actor – Judd Hirsch
  • Best Supporting Actress – Stephanie Hsu
  • Best Director – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
  • Best International Feature – EO
  • Best Picture – All Quiet on the Western Front

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Streak addiction

February 27, 2023 by Leave a comment

There was a story in the papers last week about Jeff Reitz, who visited Disneyland on 2,995 consecutive days between 2012 and 2020, when the theme park’s pandemic-related closure forced him to quit just short of the 3K milestone.

Jeff seems mostly positive about his experience, which he started as a way to keep active during a spell of unemployment, but I’m sure that there must have been some mornings when maintaining the run felt more like a tiresome obligation than a fun day out.

I have similarly mixed feelings about keeping this blog going. I must admit that, nearly sixteen years on from our debut, it’s hard to make the case that my occasional missives have any sort of relevance, and it is sometimes a chore to cobble something together for the deadline, but still, I’m loath to break the streak of posting at least once in each of the past 190 months. In a world where regularity is increasingly difficult to find, especially as one gets older, it’s comforting to have some dependable rituals, however irrational they may seem.

In the article about Jeff in the Los Angeles Times there’s a suggestion that he might have taken a break if he had reached the three thousand mark, but I think that without the force majeure of Covid he would have found it difficult to step off the treadmill. I might tell myself that I’ll quit blogging when I hit 200 months, or 20 years, or some other arbitrary target, but I know that I won’t. At this point “blogger” has, for better or worse, become part of my identity, if only in my own mind, and they’ll have to prise this keyboard from my cold, dead hands…

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Tom Verlaine RIP

January 29, 2023 by Leave a comment

Sad news today; Tom Verlaine has passed away, at the age of 73. I was just getting into music when Television broke up in 1978, so I didn’t catch up with them until later; Marquee Moon has been a favourite since my college days, and after their reunion I saw them when they toured in 2014, and again in 2016.

Much has been written about Television’s musical legacy, but equally important, for me at least, was their sartorial influence; I’ve been trying to carry off that 70s New York underground look for most of the last 40 years…

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