No plan B

I’ve been out of the country for a few days, on a trip that I planned back in the summer, before I knew that there would be a constitutional crisis to enjoy this month, and have thus been unable to keep up with the news.

I was sure that I would have missed some important development while I was away, but it turns out that I needn’t have worried, since the situation has been more or less static since the tumultuous events of last week. Theresa May has abandoned her brief flirtation with reasonableness, and returned to peddling her discredited plan, while the opposition has yet to coalesce around a workable alternative. The EU remain disinclined to grant any further concessions. Time, and warehouse space, continues to run out.

There is talk of a cross-party group of MPs seizing control of the agenda, and forcing at least a delay to the leave date, but it’s not clear that they actually have the votes to do this, or that the government wouldn’t be able to just ignore them. In any case that would just put off the day of reckoning, with no sign that any realistic plan would emerge in the extra time.

Labour do seem to be edging towards support for a second referendum, which at this point looks like the least-bad option; if they do back it there might just be a majority in favour of this course of action when amendments are voted on next week. Again though, the government maintain that such a resolution would be non-binding, and they might continue to run the clock down; no meaningful vote is due until next month, by which time is may be too late to turn back from the cliff edge.

Customary deadlock

Having survived the second attempt to depose her in a little over a month, Theresa May addressed the nation from the steps of 10 Downing Street tonight, and reiterated her new-found willingness to listen to all shades of opinion on Brexit. However she also made clear that she would not move on her opposition to a Norway-style customs union, which looks to be the only position that has even the remotest chance of gaining a majority in Parliament, so the current impasse seems as insoluble as ever.

The government is obliged to present an alternative plan next week, but May seems to have no fresh ideas, other than gambling that the EU can be induced to back down on the Irish backstop by the threat of a disorderly Brexit, thus resuscitating her deal. This is completely detached from reality, not to mention wildly irresponsible, but it’s what passes for statecraft in this country these days.

Attention now shifts to the opposition, particularly Labour, and how vigorously they will promote a second referendum. Jeremy Corbyn has been lukewarm on this, though his party is firmly behind it, but he may become more enthusiastic now that his preferred option of a general election is off the table. There is talk that the EU may look favourably on a request to suspend Article 50, which would buy enough time to organise a second vote. There are many other obstacles though, so it’s still a long shot. Which is a shame, because I can’t see any other way of avoiding disaster.

No-deal looming

So, as widely prophesied, May’s Brexit plan failed to win approval in the Commons, though the scale of the defeat – by 230 votes, the worst for a government in modern political history – was surprisingly dramatic.

May had actually delivered a reasonably inspiring speech to conclude the debate, in which she once again pointed out that, terrible though her plan may be, the only other realistic option is no-deal, which would be considerably worse, but to no avail, her attempts to woo, cajole and threaten wavering MPs over the last month apparently only having served to harden the opposing positions.

In any other place or time a premier suffering such a blow to their authority would surely have fallen on their sword, but we do not live in normal times. To be fair, May did acknowledge the wound she had received, and invited the opposition to table a motion of no-confidence, an offer immediately taken up by Jeremy Corbyn, but this seems unlikely to be carried. May went on to pledge that, if she survives, she will try to build a consensus around an alternative plan – raising the question of why she didn’t do that before the situation reached crisis point – but with her next breath she undermined this fine sentiment by reiterating the inflexible red lines that doomed her last attempt at a solution.

In any case the EU have remained firm in their position that the deal cannot be substantially renegotiated, so there is no scope for coming up with any scheme that might break the deadlock. This would be equally true for any other government that might emerge after a general election, should May be deposed.

So, since no deal can be agreed, no-deal begins to look like the most probable outcome. Another referendum might head that off, though it would possibly be even more poisonous and divisive than the last one. Nevertheless, I think a fresh vote might just be the least-bad option, but with every day that passes the likelihood of such a solution being practicable diminishes.

I really can’t see this ending happily…

Not long now

In about 5 minutes we will know how Theresa May’s Brexit deal has fared in the much-delayed parliamentary vote.

Will that clarify anything? Probably not. I’ll come back with some comment when the result is in.

Post-reason politics

On the face of it, today’s Commons defeat for Theresa May, the second in a week which started badly and is steadily getting worse for her, seems like good news for Remainers, since it obliges the government to come up with a new Brexit plan sooner rather than later. Whatever they propose will then be open to amendment, and, as opposition to no-deal is the one position that can just about command a majority, that would seem to rule out the worst of the imaginable outcomes.

However this potential escape plan will only be triggered if, or realistically when, the vote scheduled for next week is lost. May still has the option of avoiding this by postponing the vote again. This would surely trigger a no-confidence motion from Labour, but May could be calculating that her backbenchers are not quite angry enough to bring down their own government, so the only consequence would be that a bit more time was wasted.

How any of these machinations serve the national interest is far from clear. At this point it seems to have become an abstract game, with players who are only interested in the act of winning or losing, and not what the actual meaning of victory or defeat might turn out to be.

Of course there isn’t really a unified “national interest”, and anyone claiming to be acting in the name of one is usually looking out for just one side of the class divide. Still it’s hard to see that anyone will benefit from a disorderly exit, so I had expected that the bourgeoisie might have come up with a more sensible solution. Not for the first time in this saga it looks like we may be beyond the realm of rationality altogether.

Fragile hope

Another day, another defeat for the government in Parliament. The practical effects of losing this vote are apparently limited; its significance lies in the demonstration that there is a cross-party coalition determined to avoid a no-deal outcome, which seems to have enough support to prevail.

There might be some sort of consensus emerging around the proposal to suspend Article 50 (though some doubt whether it is even possible); however there is nothing like agreement on what to do with the extra time that manoeuvre would buy. The more optimistic Remainers want to organise another referendum, while more pragmatic pro-Europeans and soft-Brexiters would like a chance to negotiate a better exit deal. Such divisions may well sink the nascent alliance before it gets started.

If May’s proposal goes to the vote next week as planned – and that is far from certain – and suffers its expected defeat, then it looks to me that the most likely outcome will just be more chaos and paralysis, which plays straight into the hands of the no-deal zealots. Similarly, it’s hard to imagine that another postponement will calm anyone down.

So it looks like we’re doomed is what I’m saying. Unless there’s some sort of unexpected development in the next few days…

Feeling the fear

A few more days have passed, and it’s become clearer that the government have only one plan for Brexit, and that is to scare the hell out of everybody with the spectre of no-deal, presumably with the hope that a terrified population will put pressure on their elected representatives to approve whatever face-saving deal the EU, out of pity, offer us.

And you know what? It’s working, on me at least. While many commentators say that this must be a bluff, since no responsible politician could possibly take such a risk with the country’s future, I’m starting to believe that they may well end up driving us off the cliff, whether they mean to or not. Maybe we Europhiles should accept the need for a tactical retreat, take the not-calamitous option that is on the table now, and hope we can sneak back in at some point in the future.

Another part of me is saying that we should hold our nerve, and force May to concede that another referendum is the only way to break the stalemate. Time is running desperately short though…

A prayer for the deaf

It was reported today that the Archbishop of Canterbury has been praying for divine intervention to resolve our current political crisis, which does sound like a more realistic plan than anything the government has come up with recently.

The latest rumours are that a faction of the cabinet are agitating for a “people’s vote” to break the impasse, though whether this is true, or just propaganda designed to scare leave-leaning MPs into supporting the May deal, is anyone’s guess. I’d hazard the prediction that “no referendum” will be the government position, right up until the point when it isn’t.