Fragile hope

Another day, another defeat for the government in Parliament. The practical effects of losing this vote are apparently limited; its significance lies in the demonstration that there is a cross-party coalition determined to avoid a no-deal outcome, which seems to have enough support to prevail.

There might be some sort of consensus emerging around the proposal to suspend Article 50 (though some doubt whether it is even possible); however there is nothing like agreement on what to do with the extra time that manoeuvre would buy. The more optimistic Remainers want to organise another referendum, while more pragmatic pro-Europeans and soft-Brexiters would like a chance to negotiate a better exit deal. Such divisions may well sink the nascent alliance before it gets started.

If May’s proposal goes to the vote next week as planned – and that is far from certain – and suffers its expected defeat, then it looks to me that the most likely outcome will just be more chaos and paralysis, which plays straight into the hands of the no-deal zealots. Similarly, it’s hard to imagine that another postponement will calm anyone down.

So it looks like we’re doomed is what I’m saying. Unless there’s some sort of unexpected development in the next few days…

Feeling the fear

A few more days have passed, and it’s become clearer that the government have only one plan for Brexit, and that is to scare the hell out of everybody with the spectre of no-deal, presumably with the hope that a terrified population will put pressure on their elected representatives to approve whatever face-saving deal the EU, out of pity, offer us.

And you know what? It’s working, on me at least. While many commentators say that this must be a bluff, since no responsible politician could possibly take such a risk with the country’s future, I’m starting to believe that they may well end up driving us off the cliff, whether they mean to or not. Maybe we Europhiles should accept the need for a tactical retreat, take the not-calamitous option that is on the table now, and hope we can sneak back in at some point in the future.

Another part of me is saying that we should hold our nerve, and force May to concede that another referendum is the only way to break the stalemate. Time is running desperately short though…

A prayer for the deaf

It was reported today that the Archbishop of Canterbury has been praying for divine intervention to resolve our current political crisis, which does sound like a more realistic plan than anything the government has come up with recently.

The latest rumours are that a faction of the cabinet are agitating for a “people’s vote” to break the impasse, though whether this is true, or just propaganda designed to scare leave-leaning MPs into supporting the May deal, is anyone’s guess. I’d hazard the prediction that “no referendum” will be the government position, right up until the point when it isn’t.

Continental rebuff

Theresa May travelled to Brussels yesterday, determined to demand a better deal from the EU, and returned today with the guarantee on the temporary nature of the Irish backstop that she needed to win the support of her troublesome backbenchers.

Only joking! In the least-surprising diplomatic development since Agamemnon sailed for Troy, the European Council gave May short shrift, leaving her already threadbare authority practically nonexistent.

More optimistic observers are predicting that this turn of events might persuade May that a fresh referendum, pitching her deal against no Brexit, is the only way forward. I think this underestimates her unwillingness to bear responsibility for the split in the Tory Party such a plan would inevitably precipitate, though nothing is too extraordinary to contemplate these days, so it may well happen.

The immediate question is whether Labour will go for the kill by tabling a no confidence motion in the next week or so, while the hard-core Brexiteers are still riled-up enough that they might vote to bring down their own government. One would imagine that Labour would win any subsequent election though, which would take a hard exit off the table, so I think some semblance of Tory discipline will probably reappear, and they will concentrate on running down the clock so that we crash out by default.

That’s how it looks to me tonight; events will probably prove me wrong by tomorrow. It’s exciting enough to keep me blogging regularly, so it’s not all bad news…

Confidently unconfident

Another day of breathless drama in Westminster, which, on closer examination, has changed nothing. The Prime Minister may have survived an attempted defenestration at the hands of her own party, but the broader political landscape has hardly altered.

There is nothing to suggest that May’s temporary victory will make it any more likely that her proposed Brexit deal will make it through Parliament. At least a third of Tory MPs remain opposed, and the EU is not going to make a better offer, so the impasse remains.

The only cause for optimism is that May now may have a little more scope to face down the wilder elements of her own party, and start to build a coalition that can steer through a relatively soft Brexit. Even that will be a national calamity though, and the grim prospect of a no-deal scenario is still lurking in the background, so I don’t think that I’ll be sleeping easier any time soon.

Transatlantic distraction

It’s been a relatively quiet day in British politics, after yesterday’s excitement, though I guess it’s a sign of what a febrile state the country is in when the sight of the Prime Minister scuttling around the continent in the vain hope of finding some support in foreign capitals, while back home her own party plots to depose her, counts as only moderately notable.

It makes me nostalgic for the days when we smug Brits could look across the ocean, and laugh at our American cousins as they elected a cartoonish huckster to the highest office in the land. Now the boot is on the other foot, as the US, and indeed the whole world, watches our national descent into irrationality with unbelieving amusement.

Donald Trump can still be relied upon to deliver some diversion; today’s televised tantrum about shutting down the government if he doesn’t get the money to build his wall certainly raised a chuckle or two, and the unfolding Mueller probe promises more entertainment in the months to come.

But these will be only brief distractions; I’m resigned to it being a nonstop Brexit horror show round here for the foreseeable future.

The lady is very much for turning

Well, once again we see that one underestimates the incompetence of British politicians at one’s peril. Having adamantly stuck to the line that there would be no postponement of the vote on the Brexit deal, the government this afternoon performed a shameless volte-face and deferred said vote to some unspecified time in the future.

The ostensible reason for this is to allow Theresa May to travel to Brussels and negotiate a better deal, but, unsurprisingly, the general reaction in European capitals has been a rolling of eyes, a muttering of the local version of “FFS”, and a reiteration of the unanimous EU position that the offer on the table will not be changed.

Since it is inconceivable that May could have expected any other response, one can only conclude that this latest manoeuvre is an attempt to bounce nervous Remainers into backing her, by wasting time that could have been used to craft a better alternative to the nightmare of a no-deal scenario.

Will this work? One might think that, faced with such a cynical ploy, Parliament would rise up and hold the executive to account, but that, I fear, is to expect too much. There could be a lot of sound and fury in the next few days, but she might just get away with it.

Waiting for Tuesday

Attentive readers may have noticed that I’ve fallen a bit behind with my promised daily updates on the UK political situation, but in my defence I’d point out that a) it’s been the weekend, with festive socialising to be done; and b) nothing much has changed on the Brexit front, unless you count the rumours of Theresa May having a cunning plan, which involves postponing the parliamentary vote until she has been back to Brussels to extract some major concessions from the EU, a scheme which would be harebrained even by the recent standards of British political life.

There may be something more to report tomorrow, though a significant change in the immediate outlook seems very unlikely. The government will almost certainly lose the vote on Tuesday, but after that it’s anyone’s guess what will happen next. My feeling is that there will perhaps be less chaos than some are predicting; the ruling class in this country does have a history of cobbling together compromises when the alternative is complete disaster, so some sort of resolution will surely emerge. We’ll know soon enough.