Remember the Alamo

I’m still exiled from Second Life, due to unreliable tradesmen – it would be a lot simpler if I could just point at the walls to make them change colour. Still, I’m not missing it too much, since my real life is about ten million times more interesting than SL at the moment anyway, and I don’t have hours to waste in front of the computer.

Despite my confident predictions, Obama seems to have the Big Mo, and Hillary looks in serious danger of losing. It seems like the super-delegates are going to line up behind whoever is ahead in the popular vote, even though I thought the whole point of having super-delegates was to provide a safeguard against the party getting swept away by a tide of enthusiasm for a lightweight nominee. Texas and Ohio on March 4th will be Hillary’s last chance to turn things around. I can only hope that the primary voters stop and think long enough to realise that McCain is a very electable candidate, and that it’s going to take someone with more experience than a few years in the Illinois State Senate to take him on.

Super Tuesday

So Senators Clinton and Obama are still neck and neck after Super Tuesday. I still think it’s looking good for Hillary though, for two reasons.

Firstly McCain seems to have the Republican nomination in the bag, which will concentrate Democrat minds, since of all the GOP candidates, he looks the most electable. This makes it likely that experience will be a big issue in the general election. Exit polls show that voters who felt “experience” was a key attribute in a candidate favoured Clinton over Obama, supporting her contention that she is best placed to beat McCain. Of course the voters might think that Obama’s newness will be refreshing, but inexperience is hardly a presidential quality – even JFK had 8 years in the Senate behind him – and there would be the risk that McCain would blow him away in the heat of a national election.

Secondly, the US looks as if it is about to lurch into recession, if it hasn’t already, making the economy the number one issue for voters, well ahead of the war in Iraq. Clinton significantly outscores Obama amongst those who are looking for economic competence in their President, a section of the electorate that is likely to grow considerably over the rest of the primary season.

Add in Hillary’s appeal to women voters, and her popularity among the Hispanic community and Asian-Americans, and it is hard to see how Obama can pull in enough votes to outstrip her. It will be close though.

Stuck in the real world

My real-life house is getting decorated at the moment, one consequence of which is that my desktop computer, with its fancy graphics card, is packed away in a box under the dust sheets. I can access the internet on my old laptop, but I’ll be exiled from the grid until the paint is dry.

My trusty old Toshiba Satellite is a bit slow, even with a stripped-down linux distro (DSL) installed. Its original Pentium processer ticks over at a steady 166MHz, but it really doesn’t have enough memory to run Firefox, which means that web pages can take an age to appear, even over broadband. It’s reminiscent of the old dial-up days in a strangely comforting way though.

Being unable to get into Second Life may be a blessing in disguise, since just wandering around on the grid isn’t really the best way of finding out what is going on anyway. Instead I’ve been reading other SL blogs, which is rather more illuminating, not so much about Second Life itself, but more about the interests and preoccupations of residents, or at least that subset of the population who blog their experiences. I should probably start leaving comments on some of the more interesting blogs, but to be honest getting into any sort of dialogue seems like a bit too much hard work at the moment.

Anyway I’m still a bit distracted by the the Democratic primaries. Opinion seems to be divided about the significance of Clinton’s good showing in the supposedly meaningless Florida vote, though bouncing back after the South Carolina result has to give her some extra momentum ahead of next Tuesday. It’s not clear which way Edwards’ supporters will shift now he’s out of the running, or what effect McCain’s performance in the Republican race will have. I think the latter development may swing people towards Hillary, since she seems better equipped to take McCain on than Obama does. I’m still fairly confident that Hillary will win, both the nomination, and the vote in November.

Carolina Blues

A bit of a setback for the Clinton campaign in South Carolina; I had been expecting that Hillary would have to settle for second place, but the scale of Obama’s victory was a bit worrying. The demographics of SC aren’t typical of the big states that are due to vote next Tuesday though, and the analysis I have read so far makes me think that Hillary is still set to have a commanding lead after that vote, though the race looks like it will go all the way to the wire.

On a roll

This blog is evidently more influential than I thought (Technorati ranking of 4,446,976 notwithstanding). Since I endorsed Hillary Clinton’s campaign, there’s been no stopping her. She out-polled Obama 51% to 45% in Nevada (Edwards a distant third with 4%), her support among women and the Hispanic community proving crucial.

South Carolina is difficult to call, but it’s looking good for a clear Clinton lead after Super Tuesday on February 5th.

Still on the campaign trail

Tarissa, commenting on my last post, says that she visited a Barack Obama Second Life site a while back, but I still can’t find it, just a couple of “Obama for President” groups. I checked out the official Barack Obama website, and there’s no mention of an SL presence. Maybe he had one, then closed it when he found out that the Hillary already has SL stitched up.

John Edwards does have an SL “Campaign Central”, but every time I try to go there I get the message that “the system was unable to complete you teleport request in a timely fashion”, which might be a metaphor for his whole campaign.

Nevada is up next, on January 19th. (Actually Michigan is next, on the 15th, but Hillary is the only major candidate on the ballot, the others having withdrawn because the date was moved). Annoyingly there don’t seem to have been any polls in Nevada since December, at which point Hillary had a healthy lead, but obviously things will have changed since then, especially since the influential Nevada Culinary Union have endorsed Obama.

I’m starting to get a bit obsessed with this race. God knows what kind of state I’ll be in by Super-duper Tuesday.

On the campaign trail

After her unexpected victory in New Hampshire I was inspired to visit Hillary’s Second Life campaign headquarters:

clinton_hq.jpg

There wasn’t a lot going on, but I did pick up a campaign T-shirt, and a “Hillary” yard sign.

I tried to find Obama’s HQ too, but, despite his supposed appeal to youth, he doesn’t seem to have an SL presence.

I’m leaning towards Hillary for the nomination, not because I’m particularly enthralled by her platform (Mike Gravel has the best policies), but because I like her personal qualities, particularly the way she has stood up to years of vilification in the US media and still come out fighting. All the mainstream candidates are hopelessly compromised by their reliance on special interests for campaign funds, but Hillary seems to be the most focussed on some sort of personal vision of what the country should look like, and as such I think she would make the least worst President, of the candidates that are likely to get elected.

It’s all academic anyway, since, like most of the world’s population, I don’t have a vote, even though the outcome of the poll in November will affect my life in a lot of important ways. All the US citizens I have known over the years have been pretty sensible, so I guess I can trust them to make the right decision. Mind you, I thought that 4 years ago…

Political Blogging

I consider myself to be a bit of an internet veteran; I can remember 14.4 modems, bulletin boards, Usenet, and how exiting it was to see the first web pages, with their plain text on grey backgrounds. I still think ASCII art is pretty cool. So I’d have to admit that I initially approached the whole Web 2.0 thing with an old-timer’s conservatism, and I started reading blogs at a relatively late stage.

What first got me into the blogosphere was my interest in US politics. Around the time of the last presidential primaries there was a lot of talk about how bloggers were going to change the whole nature of political discourse, by bypassing the sclerotic mainstream media and engaging in polemical warfare reminiscent of the golden age of pamphleteering in the 18th century. Intrigued by this promise of a new style of politics, I started looking at the Blog Report feature on Salon, and following the talking points as they bounced around the blogs of the left and right, and I’ve been doing it ever since. It’s certainly entertaining, but not always particularly enlightening.

Now I live in western Europe, Scotland to be slightly more precise, and so perhaps I don’t really appreciate how bad the TV networks and newspapers are in the US, but I have never felt that blogs add a great deal to the experience of being a politically active citizen. It’s not that they don’t contain useful information, just that it’s very hard to make any sense of just how important, in political terms, any given story is. Although events in the real world are (usually) the trigger for whatever debate is exciting bloggers at any given moment, the self-referential nature of the medium almost always means that a sense of perspective is quickly lost.

Here’s an example: Glenn Greenwald’s column from a couple of days ago. Now Greenwald is a good writer, he’s living the dream by getting paid to blog for a reputable media organisation and his politics are not too objectionable (though personally I’m well to the left of him), but this piece is just nonsense. Over 1200 words (words that could have been devoted to any one of a myriad of unreported stories) to bring us the “news” that right-wing bloggers don’t always tell the truth, and can sometimes use objectionable language. Greenwald tries to make some overarching point about the “right-wing noise machine”, but it doesn’t really wash, and just exposes how badly he misjudges the resonance that such stories have within the mass of the population. Five minutes spent talking to real people on the street would set him right. The irony is that Greenwald and other left bloggers continually (and correctly) criticise the Beltway media for existing in a world of their own, but seem not to realise that the blogosphere is in many ways equally self-contained.

I’m not saying that blogs never break big stories, just that the political impact of such issues is best judged by how they are debated on the streets and in homes and workplaces, not by the blog entries they inspire.

A bit off-topic there; no Second Life, not really any psychology, unless you want to analyse the meaning of a blog post about the irrelevance of blog posts. It’s because I’m no further forward with getting the SL linux client to work – I didn’t notice that the blog I thought would be helpful hadn’t been updated in ten months. Look out for more posts about blogging, maybe something about social networking sites.