Modest predictions

If there has been an identifiable trajectory to my existence over the last year or so, it has been towards living in the moment. My sense of time has subtly but definitely shifted. The past has blurred into an achronological continuum, to the extent that I am often shocked to discover that events which are fresh in my memory actually occurred decades ago. I have been finding it increasingly difficult to think about the future in anything other than the most abstract terms. Only the present seems to have any tangible reality.

I am somewhat ambivalent about this development; I have a nagging feeling that my lack of attention to forward planning will come back to bite me at some point, but, on the other hand, my life at the moment is generally agreeable, and it seems a shame to dilute my enjoyment of it by dwelling on the past, or worrying about the future. My instinct, for the time being at least, is to lean into it, and savour the ride.

This is a rather roundabout explanation of why I am going to limit myself to the vaguest possible forecast of events for the year ahead. I would probably prefer to avoid making any predictions at all, but even a semi-detached observer like myself can see that 2024 is shaping up to be fairly momentous, so I feel honour-bound to lay down at least a few markers.

It is sadly safe to say that war will remain a feature of international relations for the foreseeable future, but the exact course of the current active conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, and Palestine is harder to predict.

I suspect that a de facto armistice will occur in Ukraine; there seems to be no appetite in the US or EU to supply the Ukrainian army with the materiel needed for a successful offensive, and Russia has more or less realised its original objective of annexing the Donbas and securing a land bridge to Crimea, so the hostilities may settle into a pattern of occasional exchanges of drone strikes.

The Sudanese civil war had seemed to be moving towards a similar stalemate, but recent fighting has seen the paramilitary RSF make gains, so an upsurge in violence may well be on the cards.

Meanwhile in Palestine, the Israeli government seems determined to continue pursuing a strategy of maximum destruction, but I can’t see how Netanyahu will be able to maintain external or internal support for such an obviously illegal and ultimately self-defeating policy, especially if a second front opens up on the northern border, so some sort of ceasefire seems likely to materialise, though it may still be months away.

Whatever happens on the battlefields, it’s certain that civilians will continue to endure unimaginable suffering, and that, along with the demise of any pretence that we live in a rules-based international order, will be something the world will have to grapple with for years to come.

Significant elections will take place this year, on both sides of the Atlantic. The timing of the UK poll is as yet uncertain, but my guess would be late spring or early summer. It’s hard to imagine any outcome other than a landslide Labour victory, but the campaign will be brutal, and the victors will inherit a country in a desperate state, so even if, as seems likely, Keir Starmer puts together a technically competent administration, there will still be many difficult days ahead.

The situation looks even less promising in the US. Several highly divisive questions need to be resolved before we can even think about the vote in November. Will the conservative justices on the Supreme Court lay aside their originalist principles and allow Donald Trump on to the ballot, despite the 14th Amendment being clear on the matter? Will Republican primary voters abandon Trump as his legal woes mount? Will the GOP establishment unite behind Trump if he does become the nominee? My guess is yes, no, and yes. It seems a little more certain that Joe Biden will be the Democratic candidate, barring any health-related problem, and I’m sure he would prevail in a fairly contested general election. Whether the poll will proceed smoothly is somewhat less certain though. One might expect that Biden’s control of the Federal government would ensure a level playing field, but Republican lawmakers in state governments have already taken steps to disenfranchise potential Democrat voters, and Trump may incite his followers into more overt election interference, before, during, and after the vote. Despite all this I have enough faith in the good sense of the American people, and the robustness of their institutions, to believe that Biden will be sworn in for a second term.

So, it turns out I can still conjure up some opinions, if I put my mind to it. The process has left me kind of bummed out though, so I’ll switch to a lighter topic for my final forecasts.

Ever since my last trip to California in 2022 I’ve been daydreaming about moving to San Francisco, or at least organising an extended stay there. In lieu of actually doing anything to turn that wish into a reality I’ve been vicariously experiencing the Bay Area lifestyle by reading restaurant reviews in the San Francisco Chronicle, and following the fortunes of the local sports teams.

Over the summer I had high hopes that the Giants would make the World Series, before a late season slump saw them miss out on even a wild card spot. They hired a new manager, Bob Melvin, but failed to sign Shohei Ohtani, so I don’t think they’ll do much this year.

The Warriors at least reached the playoffs last season, but this season they’re 15-17, and looking very ordinary, so I doubt they’ll get to the postseason.

But the 49ers! I thought they were incredibly unlucky to lose to Philadelphia in January, and this season they’ve been (almost) unstoppable, if you discount a late October blip, and an off day against Baltimore. So my 100% confident, bet the farm on it, can’t lose prediction for 2024 is San Francisco to win the Superbowl.

L’Italia è vittoriosa

So, I finally got a sporting prediction correct, though it was a close-run thing. Most neutral observers agreed the Italians were worth their victory over the piece, but England did well to take it to penalties, and with a little more luck could have won.

What’s perhaps more interesting than the on-field action are the competing narratives around the effect that England’s good run has had on the national psyche. The optimistic liberal version – that the success of the racially and socially diverse squad has fostered an atmosphere of tolerance – is rather undercut by the racist abuse directed towards black members of the team from a section of their own fan base. The government’s clumsy attempts to appropriate the feel-good factor surrounding the tournament to bolster its fading domestic popularity look similarly out of place amongst ministers’ unsubtle dog-whistles to that same white-nationalist constituency.

The country may move on from this particular disappointment fairly quickly, as our attention shifts to getting through what promises to be some bumpy months ahead, but resolving these opposing conceptions of identity and belonging will take much longer, and require rather more in the way of political leadership than our current government seems able to provide.

Obscure future

Well, for about 109 minutes there it looked like I might have finally produced an accurate football tournament prediction, but no luck, for me nor France.

My political forecasting skills are not much better; despite my confident assertion that Boris Johnson would be the next Prime Minister he didn’t even make it on to the ballot. Instead we are to have a female premier, which sounds like it should be progressive, but neither Theresa May nor Andrea Leadsom are exactly hard-core feminists, so perhaps not.

There had been talk of an early election, but that possibility seems to be receding, and with it hopes that Brexit could be averted by some sort of democratic means. There are a couple of legal cases pending that seek to overturn the referendum result, but, aghast as I was at the leave vote, I would hesitate to change the outcome by such a method, since it would only drive already alienated sections of the population into the arms of the far-right.

I guess we just have to play the long game; as the Chilcot Report has shown, progressive positions are usually vindicated with the passage of time, even if it is years too late to make any difference.