Second Life Shrink

Liberal betrayal

After six days of haggling we finally have a new Prime Minister. To no one’s great surprise it’s David Cameron, though at the head of a Conservative-Liberal coalition rather than a minority government. The Lib Dems evidently found the lure of high office irresistible, though they will no doubt talk nobly about “The National Interest” as they try to explain their sorry sell-out. I guess they must be confident that the concession they have extracted from the Tories on reforming the voting system – the promise of a referendum on AV – can be converted into some sort of concrete change before we all go to the polls again. In my view this is very optimistic – the Tory party (and a large part of the Labour party) are implacably opposed to PR in any form, and will surely work hard, along with their allies in the media, to ensure there is a “No” vote in any plebiscite on the issue.

In exchange for this vague nod towards reform, and perhaps other compromises on some details of economic policy that will emerge in time, the Lib Dems are identifying themselves with an administration that seems likely to embark on the most savage attack on working-class living standards in at least 30 years. The Tories may have made promises about protecting vital services, but now they are in power they will be able to claim that the public finances are in much worse state than they had thought, and push though cuts on a scale that no one has imagined. The Lib Dems may hope that their presence in government may put a brake on the worst of the Tory excesses, but in reality they will have no leverage other than threatening to quit the coalition and bring the government down, probably precipitating fresh elections in which they would risk being wiped out as disillusioned voters punished them for their perfidy.

Labour, in my opinion, has taken the sensible option of a spell in opposition, gathering strength for the next election, which may well be sooner rather than later. This of course does leave the population exposed to the depredations of the Tories, but the alternative – trying to hang on to power as part of an unstable “rainbow coalition” – would probably have ended with an early election and a Tory majority. The risk is of course that some external event will help the Tories get re-elected, in the way the Falklands war saved Thatcher from probable defeat in 1983, and condemn us to decades of misery.

There’s nothing else to be done now though, except to agitate and organise, and try to make the new government’s life as short and difficult as possible.

Election reaction

I stayed up until about 1 am this morning, when the early results seemed to be suggesting that the swing to the Tories would be enough to give them a slim majority, sending me to my bed in despair. I avoided listening to the radio first thing this morning, to put off the bad news, but when I did eventually tune in I found that my less gloomy predictions had in fact been more or less right as far as the national results go, apart from the Lib Dems only improving on their 2005 share of the vote by 1.0%, which, thanks to the vagaries of our electoral system, meant they actually ended up losing 5 seats rather than gaining the 20 to 30 they had hoped for. Labour were down 6.2% and the Tories up 3.8%, leaving them 20 seats short of a majority.

Up here in Scotland the Labour vote bucked the national trend by rising 2.5%, as their warnings of the threat of a Tory government resonated with an electorate that still remembers the horrors of the Thatcher years. The Tories stumbled to a single seat and 16.7% of the vote north of the border, compared to their national result of 36.1%, raising the question of whether a London Tory government has a mandate to rule Scotland, an issue that will undoubtedly have a major impact in the Scottish Parliament elections next year. That said, the SNP had a disappointing night, their rise of 2.3% less than they had hoped for, and overall the result in terms of seats was exactly what it had been in 2005.

There wasn’t much to cheer those to the left of Labour; the various organisations which stood candidates mostly polled under 2.0%, with Respect losing their only seat. Even the Greens only managed 1.0% nationally, though they did pull off the coup of winning their first seat, in Brighton. The far-right did a little better, with the BNP on 1.9% and UKIP on 3.1%, though they made no major breakthroughs.

Now the horse-trading has started, I’m still expecting the outcome to be a Tory minority government. The Lib Dems may turn out be a bit less attached to their principles once they get a sniff of actual power, but I think they would be reluctant to enter a formal Con-Lib coalition, if for no other reason than wanting to avoid being too closely associated with the Tories’ cuts agenda, which is bound to be enormously unpopular, when we might be returning to the polls in the not-too-distant future. Labour are going through the motions of tempting the Lib Dems with offers of electoral reform, but I wonder if their real strategy is to regroup in opposition in preparation for an election in 18 months or so. I expect Brown will have to resign, but I’m sure that reports of the death of the Labour as a party of government are very premature.

The Tories’ austerity measures, when they come, will surely generate a lot of opposition in working-class communities, so there will be opportunities for growing the left, though we clearly have our work cut out, not least because the fascists are waiting in the wings. The next couple of years could be one of those periods, like the early 80’s, where the political life of this country changes dramatically, and we have to do our best to make sure that this time round it’s for the better.

Trepidation

Well that’s my ballot cast (for the Communist Party, natch), so there’s nothing to do now but wait for the results. The exit polls will be out in less than an hour, and I’m pretty convinced that we’ll be looking at a Conservative victory.

I have no great love for the Labour Party, what with them invading Iraq, eroding civil liberties, letting the bankers destroy the economy and generally selling out every vaguely socialist principle they ever had, but I can’t help feeling a gnawing sense of dread at the prospect of a Tory government.

I’m old enough to remember how terrible the Thatcher years were, and with the economic situation the way it is, not to mention the decline of the left in the intervening years, we may be in for an even rougher ride this time round.

Election prediction

For the first time in over 30 years it looks like there will be no clear winner of a UK general election. The polls seem to be showing a late recovery in Labour support at the expense of the Lib Dems, though the Tories are still out in front, in terms of the popular vote at least. How this will translate into seats is unclear; though a consensus seems to be forming that the Tories will be the biggest single party. The Lib Dems may theoretically hold the balance of power, though if either of the big parties are only just short of a majority the minor parties might come into play. The Ulster Unionist Party has a formal alliance with the Tories, who could also probably count on the support of the Democratic Unionists. The Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists have ruled out entering into coalitions, but would most likely vote with Labour to keep the Tories out.

In these circumstances any prediction I make about what will happen after the votes are counted will almost certainly be wrong, but I’ll have a go anyway:

• The Tories will be the biggest single party, in the popular vote and in seats, but will be short of a majority, even with Unionist support.
• Labour will come second in share of the vote, but only just ahead of the Lib Dems, though with many more seats.
• The Lib Dems will substantially increase their overall vote, but this will bring only a modest rise in their seats.
• The Scottish and Welsh Nationalists will gain two or three seats, at the expense of Labour.
• The far-right UKIP and BNP will poll well in certain areas, but won’t win any seats.
• Parties to the left of Labour will see a modest rise in total vote, but the fragmented nature of the left will prevent any serious gains.

If the polls do work out this way then:

• David Cameron will become Prime Minister at the head of a minority government.
• The Lib Dems will not enter a formal coalition with the Tories, but will not bring the government down, as long as Cameron makes some sort of commitment to voting reform.
• Gordon Brown will resign as Labour leader, resulting in a period of party infighting.

And in the medium term:

• The Tories will embark on a round of public spending cuts deeper than people had imagined, leading to significant social unrest.
• Labour will unite behind a new leader, at least temporarily.
• The Lib Dems will find it harder to continue propping up an increasingly unpopular government.
• There will be another election within 18 months.

Beyond that? I don’t know. I’m hoping the reaction against a Tory administration will give a boost to the left, but one can never be sure of these things, and there may be a swing to the right instead. The only certainty is that things will be uncertain.

Fear of change

The final leaders’ debate on TV last night was perhaps the most illuminating of the three, partly because it focussed on the economy, forcing Brown, Cameron and Clegg to be a bit more specific about their plans, but mostly because it was clear that the parties had settled on the message they were going to project in the last week of campaign.

Cameron and Clegg continue to offer the prospect of “change”, though the credibility of their promise is rather undermined by the fact that, as rich, white, ex-public schoolboys, they are clearly members of the political elite they affect to disdain. Clegg has the advantage of leading a party that hasn’t been in power for a century, which might persuade voters that he will bring a new perspective to running the country, but Cameron can truthfully say that the electoral arithmetic means that only he can realistically aspire to form a majority administration and actually put his program into practice.

Brown mentioned “change” a lot too, but only to highlight how risky and scary it was. He was by far the most negative in the debate, attacking his opponents’ plans rather than promoting his own. As incumbent he can’t promise lots of reform, as people will only wonder why he hasn’t got round to it before now, and in the current financial climate he won’t want to draw too much attention to his record. The strategy he seems to be adopting is to tacitly admit that mistakes have been made, while asserting that the other lot would mess things up even more.

I think that Labour party stategists must have realised that they have no chance of winning a majority of seats, though the way their vote is concentrated means that it is possible they will be the biggest single party even if they poll relatively poorly. What they have to avoid is falling to third in share of the popular vote; the Lib Dems would find it very difficult to enter into a coalition with Labour in those circumstances, paving the way for a Lib-Con pact, or, more likely, a minority Conservative administration. To this end Labour are trying to get their core support to turn out by raising the spectre of a return to the dark days of Thatcherism.

This might just work. No one who lived through the early 80’s in a working-class community will have forgotten the pain of those grim times, and hatred for the Tories still runs deep. The prospect of another Tory government, especially one headed by an obvious class enemy like Cameron, may be enough to motivate traditional Labour supporters to overlook recent history and vote for Brown.

So it’s still all to play for. I don’t want to make any guess about the outcome just yet, but I will put my prediction on the record sometime before polling day.