Second Life Shrink

Gaza Flotilla

I wrote this piece about a week ago, but I hesitated to post it, since its serious nature is out of keeping with the generally frivolous tone of this blog. I vaguely know a couple of people who were on board the Gaza flotilla though, and I figured that if they were willing to risk a bullet in the head, the least I could do was to show a little solidarity.

Since I’m coming to this late there’s probably no point in repeating the case for ending the Gaza blockade (even the US administration has come out against it) or going over the Israeli assault on the flotilla (you can read eyewitness accounts here and here, and watch unedited video here). Anyone who hasn’t thought about how the incident illuminates the nature of the Israeli state can read an insightful essay on the subject here.

The internet is supposed to have made it harder for the powerful to get away with outrages like this, by democratising the flow of information. That’s true to some extent, but it’s also the case that, thanks to the speed of modern communication, the old saying “‘A lie is halfway round the world before the truth has got its boots on” has never been more accurate. What’s even more disheartening is that the multiplicity of news sources doesn’t seem to have broadened minds – instead of seeing things from another point of view, people just shop around until they find a newsfeed that confirms their existing prejudices.

I guess I am as susceptible to this as anyone, though I do try to take in more than just Indymedia and the Weekly Worker. I tend to get my information via Google News, which usually links to a fair spectrum of opinion, though of course I must consciously and unconsciously select what I click on.

Looking in my browser history for the last few days I see the BBC, The Guardian, The Times, The Telegraph, The Independent, The Herald, The Scotsman, Salon, The LA Times, The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor, The Houston Chronicle, Al Jazeera, Xinhua, AP, Reuters, AFP and the CBC. Now, Al Jazeera and Xinhua aside, I would characterise those outlets as largely conservative, western, mainstream media, which in theory should counterbalance my habitual far-left outlook, but in this case, none of the facts reported by any of these sources would seriously undermine the argument that Israel is guilty of an unjustified act of aggression.

Facts don’t always carry the day though, and exposure to information that challenges one’s existing opinions doesn’t necessarily change one’s mind. If anything the evidence suggests that it does just the opposite.

So maybe this post is a waste of time, since anyone who disagrees with the view that the Israeli state is out of control is unlikely to change their ideas after reading what I think. Still, I can hope that what I’ve written and linked to may go a little way towards convincing at least a few people to think about opposing the Gaza blockade, and supporting a just peace for Palestine.

Liberal betrayal

After six days of haggling we finally have a new Prime Minister. To no one’s great surprise it’s David Cameron, though at the head of a Conservative-Liberal coalition rather than a minority government. The Lib Dems evidently found the lure of high office irresistible, though they will no doubt talk nobly about “The National Interest” as they try to explain their sorry sell-out. I guess they must be confident that the concession they have extracted from the Tories on reforming the voting system – the promise of a referendum on AV – can be converted into some sort of concrete change before we all go to the polls again. In my view this is very optimistic – the Tory party (and a large part of the Labour party) are implacably opposed to PR in any form, and will surely work hard, along with their allies in the media, to ensure there is a “No” vote in any plebiscite on the issue.

In exchange for this vague nod towards reform, and perhaps other compromises on some details of economic policy that will emerge in time, the Lib Dems are identifying themselves with an administration that seems likely to embark on the most savage attack on working-class living standards in at least 30 years. The Tories may have made promises about protecting vital services, but now they are in power they will be able to claim that the public finances are in much worse state than they had thought, and push though cuts on a scale that no one has imagined. The Lib Dems may hope that their presence in government may put a brake on the worst of the Tory excesses, but in reality they will have no leverage other than threatening to quit the coalition and bring the government down, probably precipitating fresh elections in which they would risk being wiped out as disillusioned voters punished them for their perfidy.

Labour, in my opinion, has taken the sensible option of a spell in opposition, gathering strength for the next election, which may well be sooner rather than later. This of course does leave the population exposed to the depredations of the Tories, but the alternative – trying to hang on to power as part of an unstable “rainbow coalition” – would probably have ended with an early election and a Tory majority. The risk is of course that some external event will help the Tories get re-elected, in the way the Falklands war saved Thatcher from probable defeat in 1983, and condemn us to decades of misery.

There’s nothing else to be done now though, except to agitate and organise, and try to make the new government’s life as short and difficult as possible.

Election reaction

I stayed up until about 1 am this morning, when the early results seemed to be suggesting that the swing to the Tories would be enough to give them a slim majority, sending me to my bed in despair. I avoided listening to the radio first thing this morning, to put off the bad news, but when I did eventually tune in I found that my less gloomy predictions had in fact been more or less right as far as the national results go, apart from the Lib Dems only improving on their 2005 share of the vote by 1.0%, which, thanks to the vagaries of our electoral system, meant they actually ended up losing 5 seats rather than gaining the 20 to 30 they had hoped for. Labour were down 6.2% and the Tories up 3.8%, leaving them 20 seats short of a majority.

Up here in Scotland the Labour vote bucked the national trend by rising 2.5%, as their warnings of the threat of a Tory government resonated with an electorate that still remembers the horrors of the Thatcher years. The Tories stumbled to a single seat and 16.7% of the vote north of the border, compared to their national result of 36.1%, raising the question of whether a London Tory government has a mandate to rule Scotland, an issue that will undoubtedly have a major impact in the Scottish Parliament elections next year. That said, the SNP had a disappointing night, their rise of 2.3% less than they had hoped for, and overall the result in terms of seats was exactly what it had been in 2005.

There wasn’t much to cheer those to the left of Labour; the various organisations which stood candidates mostly polled under 2.0%, with Respect losing their only seat. Even the Greens only managed 1.0% nationally, though they did pull off the coup of winning their first seat, in Brighton. The far-right did a little better, with the BNP on 1.9% and UKIP on 3.1%, though they made no major breakthroughs.

Now the horse-trading has started, I’m still expecting the outcome to be a Tory minority government. The Lib Dems may turn out be a bit less attached to their principles once they get a sniff of actual power, but I think they would be reluctant to enter a formal Con-Lib coalition, if for no other reason than wanting to avoid being too closely associated with the Tories’ cuts agenda, which is bound to be enormously unpopular, when we might be returning to the polls in the not-too-distant future. Labour are going through the motions of tempting the Lib Dems with offers of electoral reform, but I wonder if their real strategy is to regroup in opposition in preparation for an election in 18 months or so. I expect Brown will have to resign, but I’m sure that reports of the death of the Labour as a party of government are very premature.

The Tories’ austerity measures, when they come, will surely generate a lot of opposition in working-class communities, so there will be opportunities for growing the left, though we clearly have our work cut out, not least because the fascists are waiting in the wings. The next couple of years could be one of those periods, like the early 80’s, where the political life of this country changes dramatically, and we have to do our best to make sure that this time round it’s for the better.

Trepidation

Well that’s my ballot cast (for the Communist Party, natch), so there’s nothing to do now but wait for the results. The exit polls will be out in less than an hour, and I’m pretty convinced that we’ll be looking at a Conservative victory.

I have no great love for the Labour Party, what with them invading Iraq, eroding civil liberties, letting the bankers destroy the economy and generally selling out every vaguely socialist principle they ever had, but I can’t help feeling a gnawing sense of dread at the prospect of a Tory government.

I’m old enough to remember how terrible the Thatcher years were, and with the economic situation the way it is, not to mention the decline of the left in the intervening years, we may be in for an even rougher ride this time round.