Reptilia

I don’t usually get too emotionally exercised about politics – though I have strong opinions, my engagement tends to be confined to ideas rather than passions. This is due in part to my generally phlegmatic personality, but also reflects the political temperament of my homeland, a country where change, even of the most profound nature, mostly presents itself as slow evolution rather than violent revolution. This is a decidedly mixed blessing; it bestows a reassuring stability on the polity, but allows our governments to get away with things that would provoke insurrection in more excitable nations.

It is rare then for me to feel anxiety, let alone twinges of fear, when I am considering some political question, especially one concerning a foreign country. Yet the more I read about Sarah Palin, the more I find myself worrying about John McCain’s health.

Faced with the prospect of a US president who believes that The Rapture will happen within her lifetime, all one can do is embrace the relatively comforting notion that the occupant of the White House has no real power anyway, since the world is actually controlled by a cabal of giant lizards.

All change

I’m not sure how I feel about the Republican ticket now; I swing between conviction that McCain/Palin have no hope of election, and a horrible, gnawing fear that they might just pull it off.

The GOP strategists have obviously figured out that “experience” and “continuity” are not themes that are going to win many votes at a time when the country looks as if it is headed straight to economic hell, so they have decided to vie with the Democratics for the mantle of “change”. Suddenly McCain is a “maverick” again, ready to storm Washington and kick out the special interests, gun-toting God-fearing Everywoman Palin by his side.

The gap between the Republican propaganda and reality is surely too wide for even the best advertising to bridge. McCain’s campaign is run by lobbyists. He has supported Bush on practically every issue of importance in the last eight years. Palin, supposed scourge of the earmark, hired teams of lobbyists to gouge Federal dollars for her small town when she was mayor, and as Governer has continued gorging in the Washington pork-barrel.

There can be no way that they will get away with this flagrant reinvention of history, can there? All Obama has to do is point out the facts, right? The US electorate knows when it’s being lied to, doesn’t it?

But Obama and McCain are neck and neck in the national polls, it’s too close to call in the swing states, and the Republican base is looking more energised than it has done in months. They’re beginning to believe that they can win this thing. I can only hope that their judgement on that is as poor as it is on everything else.

Palin into insignificance

On the other hand, the Presidential race is just heating up, and browsing Google News, looking for the latest on the car-wreck that is the Republican ticket may just consume all my online hours.

Thinking to do in Denver

Catching up with the news from the DNC has raised my level of interest in US politics again, after a spell when I couldn’t be bothered with it. I figured that the Democrats had blown it again by picking the wrong candidate, thus landing the rest of the world with four more years of Republican nonsense.

Having watched Obama’s speech, read the contributions of the Clintons (say what you like about Bill and Hillary, but you can’t deny that they know the meaning of party discipline), and felt the general mood of excitement amongst the rank and file, I had been feeling a bit more optimistic.

But now McCain has picked Sarah Palin as his running mate I’m filled with doubt again. It’s obviously a transparent bid for the votes of disaffected Hillary supporters, and it might backfire – it undermines the GOP’s ability to hammer Obama for his inexperience, and it increases concerns about McCain’s age and health – but in a close race it might just be enough to carry the day. Brilliant or stupid? We’ll know in November.

End of the dream

So it looks like Obama rather than Clinton for the Democratic nomination. I still think he’ll struggle against McCain, but we can only live in hope.

What about an Obama/Clinton ticket? It would make sense from the party point of view, since Hillary would bring in the votes that Obama needs – Hispanic, Asian-American, blue-collar. The fact that Hillary seems open to the idea speaks volumes for her, since her acceptance of the VP nomination would more or less guarantee an Obama presidency for 8 years, which would put paid to her own hopes of getting the top job. Without her his chances of success are much less, and if McCain does win then Hillary would be well placed to pick up the nomination in 4 years time, and with it the presidency, since another term of Republican misrule will surely render any GOP candidate unelectable.

But I can’t see such a dream ticket happening. Obama has made too much of the “change” theme to take up with a Washington insider like Clinton. My guess is he’ll go for Bill Richardson.

The next 5 months are going to be interesting…

Slipping Away

Clinton’s fairly convincing victory in Pennsylvania was encouraging, but Obama has come surging back in North Carolina, and Hillary didn’t win by much in Indiana, so it’s looking almost certain that Obama will be the nominee.

In terms of policy it wouldn’t make much difference – he would probably get the troops out of Iraq a bit sooner, she has a better health plan; either of them would make a perfectly decent President.

My worry is still over Obama’s electability. McCain could win in November, which would be an absolute disaster for the US, and the rest of the world.

I’m sure Hillary will be President one day; I just hope it’s in 2009 rather than 2013.

Eyes on the prize

Readers will have noticed that I haven’t had much to say about the Democratic nomination race recently; this is of course because my candidate now looks certain to lose. I’m still just about clinging to the hope that a big Clinton win in Pennsylvania on Tuesday will convince the wavering superdelegates that the choice they face isn’t President Clinton or President Obama, it’s President Clinton or President McCain.

(In)decision time

I’ve been sticking by my prediction that Senator Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, though for the last couple of weeks that has been based more on faith than reason. The results in Texas and Ohio are positive, and it does look like Hillary will pick up momentum in the next month or so, and probably win the last big state to vote, Pennsylvania, but it’s clear that this race is going to go all the way to the convention.

The Florida and Michigan delegates have become a big issue – I can’t see how the party could maintain the position of excluding them when the contest is this close, but Obama supporters could legitimately cry foul if they are seated, since Hillary ran more or less unopposed in both states. Still, plenty of people were predicting that these delegations were going to end up being crucial, so Obama has only himself to blame for his no-show.

Even if the Florida and Michigan delegates count, it is probably still going to come down to the superdelegates. Just following the popular vote, or siding with the delegate leader, would be a cop-out. They have to take responsibility, and ask themselves this question: who can beat McCain?

It would be easy to think that Bush has made any GOP candidate unelectable, but that is over-optimistic. The Democratic nominee is going to have to be able to stand up to the worst the right-wing noise machine can generate. Hillary has been under fire from Republicans for the last 16 years and is still fighting, and winning in the big states. Obama has had an easy ride so far – maybe he’ll be able to take the flak, maybe he won’t. Is that a chance worth taking?

Super Tuesday

So Senators Clinton and Obama are still neck and neck after Super Tuesday. I still think it’s looking good for Hillary though, for two reasons.

Firstly McCain seems to have the Republican nomination in the bag, which will concentrate Democrat minds, since of all the GOP candidates, he looks the most electable. This makes it likely that experience will be a big issue in the general election. Exit polls show that voters who felt “experience” was a key attribute in a candidate favoured Clinton over Obama, supporting her contention that she is best placed to beat McCain. Of course the voters might think that Obama’s newness will be refreshing, but inexperience is hardly a presidential quality – even JFK had 8 years in the Senate behind him – and there would be the risk that McCain would blow him away in the heat of a national election.

Secondly, the US looks as if it is about to lurch into recession, if it hasn’t already, making the economy the number one issue for voters, well ahead of the war in Iraq. Clinton significantly outscores Obama amongst those who are looking for economic competence in their President, a section of the electorate that is likely to grow considerably over the rest of the primary season.

Add in Hillary’s appeal to women voters, and her popularity among the Hispanic community and Asian-Americans, and it is hard to see how Obama can pull in enough votes to outstrip her. It will be close though.